The Adventures of Chester: Collapses and Coups
The world should not be surprised by a Chinese-sponsored coup in North Korea.
Consider two assumptions: first, that of all the countries surrounding North Korea, China by far possesses the most levers of influence. It shares a long border with North Korea; provides food aid and other types of logistics support to North Korea; has a treaty with North Korea, calling it a "friend"; has a shared ideological background; has cooperated on some military matters; and so forth. Not only that, but because of all of these relationships, the Chinese are in a much better position than the other neighbors to have a clear read on exactly what is going on inside the North; what the status of the military is; who in the leadership might be tired of Kim; and so forth.
The second assumption is that there are many possible futures for the crisis. These beg the question: which will be more beneficial to China, and therefore, which might China attempt to foster?
Consider four options:
a) War begun by US: The US may be provoked by North Korea into starting a campaign of limited scope. It might seek, for example, to destroy the North's nuclear infrastructure and decapitate the regime. The Korea Times reported yesterday that the US is creating a new war plan for the North:
Under the envisaged plan, U.S. combat aircraft and bombers, such as F-117A Nighthawk stealth fighters and F-15Es, would conduct ``surgical strikes'' on major weapons of mass destruction (WMD) facilities, training sites, and intelligence and communication facilities in the North instead of ground forces advancing into the North, the report said.Should Kim's regime come to inadvertently portray itself as beyond all hope, it is not inconceivable that such a plan might be executed. After a protracted and bloody war, the North will be occupied by the US and South Korea. If so, China will lose its influence in the North.
b) War begun by North Korea: Kim may start a campaign himself. In this scenario, the result would probably be the same as that above for China: loss of influence.
c) Anarchic collapse:In this scenario, refugees stream out of North Korea in all directions; there may be limited military activity by Kim's regime, both inside and outside the country, as he tries to regain control; the US, South Korea and Japan might cooperate in starting massive humanitarian relief while at the same time seizing the North's nuclear facilities and exploiting them. China might also act, sending in troops to stabilize the country and assist with humanitarian needs. The end result would be a North Korea that is a sort of international basket case, reliant on aid, security and other necessities for some time. When that time is over, it is unlikely that the US, having been involved in North Korea's rehabilitation, would stand by and watch as a new hard-core dictatorship came to power. In short, China's influence would be decreased, but it would still be able to affect outcomes in the North.
d) Controlled collapse: This scenario might look outwardly the same as that of anarchic collapse, but the difference would be that the Chinese would have found their new man in Pyongyang. A coup would precipitate a controlled collapse. The Kim family would be booted, more than likely executed. A new leader would emerge, backed by China, probably from within the middle ranks of the military or political leadership. The new leader might forswear nuclear weapons, might avoid inflammatory rhetoric, and would certainly clamor for aid from outside. China would be able to influence him tremendously.
This last scenario is by far the best for China. China has been attempting to convince the North to begin market reforms for some time and has made little progress. A new leader, backed by China in seizing power, could be convinced to do so. Having secured their influence on the peninsula, the Chinese would then be free to play a larger role in the issue that is most important to the rest of the major players: nuclear weapons. China will have also saved face, as it will have imposed an acceptable outcome on a world crisis. Finally, China's hungry economy will have access to an entirely new set of natural resources in the mineral-rich North.
Having made the case that this would be the best outcome for China, it is at the same time impossible to speculate on its probability.
Nevertheless, some news items in the past few days are intriguing:
Japan's Yomiuri Shinbun reports that China dispatched a special envoy to Washington to discuss North Korea, betraying the importance and urgency with which China regards the matter.
Soth Korea's Chosun Ilbo reports that Chinese banks are restricting activity by North Koreans and the transfer of funds into North Korea, on the expectation that such accounts might be frozen by the government. North Korean workers in China are also returning home in large numbers because the Chinese have not renewed their work permits.
Another outlet notes that China is now inspecting cargo at the North Korean border for weapons.
Yet another report tells of the construction of the first border fence between the two countries, made of barbed wire and concrete. The International Herald Tribune argues that this may be for more than just security reasons:
China and the North drew their border in a secret treaty, which wasn't reported to the U.N. and therefore does not apply to a third country, like South Korea. China may be concerned that South Korea could claim a different border after absorbing or unifying with the North.
And finally, the most intriguing story of all comes from The Australian [via the Small Wars Journal], entitled, China May Back Coup Against Kim:
The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."Given the reports of past planned coups, the fact that the US sponsored sanctions include a ban on all luxury items is telling. The elites will be the most affected by this ban, and it is the elites who are most likely to attempt a coup."The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"
Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.
On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.
In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.
Posted by Chester on October 17, 2006 8:58 AM to The Adventures of Chester