January 31, 2005

The Latest from George Friedman -- "The Three Power Game"

In his latest article, George Friedman asks:

First, once Iraq holds elections, what will Iran's policy be toward Iraq's new Shiite government? Second, since the Shiite-Sunni split is fundamental to the Islamic world, how will the United States manage and manipulate that divide?

He answers thus:

For Iran, the best outcome of the war would be a pro-Iranian regime in Baghdad. The second best outcome would be chaos in Iraq. Both provide Iran with what it needs: a relatively secure frontier and an opportunity to shape events to the west. The third -- and least acceptable -- outcome would be a neutral Iraq. Neutrality is highly changeable.

There seems to be a fourth possible -- and worst for Iran -- outcome: a stable, US-friendly regime in Iraq.

Friedman has organized Iran's outcomes into these categories because of his take on Iran's strategic goals:

The Saudis cannot afford chaos in Iraq or for the road from Iran to be wide open. They will increase their dependence on the United States and will be forced to do whatever they can to reduce the rebellion in the Sunni region. A united Iraq under a Shiite-dominated coalition government will secure Iran's western frontiers, but will deny it the opportunity to dominate the region. A divided Iraq will give Iran secure borders, an opportunity for domination and serious responses from Arab states. It will drive the Arabs into the Americans' arms. Things could get dicey fast for the Iranians. The United States is letting them know -- via the convenient conduit of Seymour Hersh and The New Yorker magazine -- that it is ready to push back hard on Iran. U.S. President George W. Bush directly warned the Iranians on Jan. 26 to stay out of the Iraqi elections. The Iranians are signaling back that they are a nuclear power -- which is not true yet.

The Iranians have a fundamental strategic decision to make. They can work with the United States and secure their interests. They can undermine the United States and go for the big prize: domination of the Persian Gulf. The first is low risk, the second incredibly high risk.

Looking at the flip side of this logic, what are the fundamental strategic decisions for the US to make? Friedman notes:

Behind this all there is a complex three-power game. There is the United States, in a war with factions of the Sunni.

This much is true. The Iraqi terrorist insurgency is largely Sunni. But is the war on terrorism restricted solely to Sunnis? Is the Bush administration pursuing a policy of detente with Iran? The Iranians are Shi'ite, and their Pasdaran has long supported Hizballah (Party of God -- also Shi'ites). Hizballah are certainly war on terror material . . . does it seem wise to think that the US will discriminate against threats based on their religious origin? Don't Bush's latest remarks in his inaugural imply that whatever his choices with Iran, he would prefer it were a more fully-functioning democracy?

The US is engaged in a game of long-term modernization and alliance construction in the Middle East. it is creating new nation and state-based centers of power to replace religious centers of power. The new centers are allied with the US: Afghanistan, a nation-state, replaces the Taliban and the Northern Alliance, which were ethnically and religiously-based. In Iraq, a Sunni and tribe-based power center is replaced with a Shi'ite and Kurd-dominated nation-state (it's a gamble, but can certainly succeed). Whereas the old power centers in the Islamic world looked like this:

1. Sunni Wahabbi dictatorship in Afghanistan
2. Sunni Wahabbi dictatorship in Saudi Arabia
3. Shi'ite clerical dictatorship in Iran
4. Ba'athist Sunni secular dictatorship in Iraq
5. Ba'athist Sunni secular dictatorship in Syria,

the new power centers are so:

1. Aghani-nation state.
2. Mixed ethnicity Iraqi nation-state.
3. Sunni Wahabbi terrorist insurgency in Sunni Triangle, Iraq

If the insurgency is defeated, no longer will the populations of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia see their world solely in terms of religious blocs. National blocs, mainly mixed-ethnicity nations, will have replaced them.

The goal of the Bush administration is to redefine the Middle East in terms of nation-states rather than religion. The key question is, how badly does a nuclear Iran muddle those long-term plans? This is why the question of whether the US sees itself as solely fighting the Sunnis is so important. If the US also sees itself as wishing to influence modernizing change with the Shi'ite portions of the Middle East as well, then a nuclear Iran could scuttle those plans entirely.

The strategic choices vis a vis Iran then become:

1. Let Iran keep its current state of security and influence in order to stabilize Iraq, the goal being that a non-religiously defined Iraq will spark Iran not to religiously define itself. Iran may shortly become a nuclear power. This is low-risk, low-reward.

2. Pressure Iran to keep its influence out of Iraq, and to end its nuclear weapons program. The outcome would be a stable Iraq, and a non-nuclear Iran ready for its regime to be destabilized in the future. This is low-risk, medium reward.

3. Attempt the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in order to stop the possibility of a nuclear Iran from interfering with long-term democratization and the goal of redefining the Middle East in terms of nations rather than religions. This is high-risk, medium/high reward. The very act of military action in Iran could cause a backlash from those portions of its society which would find themselves in the vanguard of any democratic movement. It has been widely noted that the Iranian nuclear weapons program is seen as valuable to the regime even by those who detest it, because their nationality is stronger than their democratic desire.

4. Attempt the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the replacement of the Iranian regime in order not to allow a nuclear Iran to interfere with long term democratization and the goal of redefining the Middle East in terms of nations rather than religions. In fact, to speed up the democratization and redefinition. This is very high risk, very high reward.

The US cannot allow Iran's sphere of influence to increase, giving Iran larger influence internally in Iraq and significantly destabilizing the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

It seems that a nuclear Iran is a serious setback to regional strategic goals for the United States and US statements have indicated that senior decisionmakers feel as such.

What now?

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???????????

For once I am totally speechless.

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Steven Vincent Video: Fox and Friends

Guest-blogger Steven Vincent was on Fox this morning. In case you missed it, Johnny Dollar has just put the video up.

Great job to Steven by the way.

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Fanfare for the Common Iraqi . . . redux

[I just might repost this every other post tonight to make sure people see it.]

Low res:
http://adamkeiper.blogs.com/comparevideo/files/Iraq_Election.wmv

Hi-res:
http://adamkeiper.blogs.com/comparevideo/files/Iraq_Election_HiRes.wmv

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Going Forward

[This is Chester: This is the final post by our guest-blogger Steven Vincent. We thank him for joining us over this historic weekend. He's welcome back anytime. Be sure to check out his blog here. And don't forget to see the link to his book "In the Red Zone," in the sidebar. I am just getting into it and can already recommend it.]
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As is the wont of things, after the euphoria comes the sobering reminder that a single success does not solve a multitude of problems. Nowhere is this truer than Iraq. With the risk of seeming like dreary chunk of Juan Cole in the Christmas stocking of Iraq's elections, let me outline some of the challenges immediately facing the Land Between the Rivers.

The Kurds. The flashpoint is the multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk. Here, Kurds are vying against Sunni Arabs and their Turkomen allies for control of the oil fields of Baba Gurgur. Although Kirkuk technically falls outside Kurdistan, the Kurds have long eyed the city eyed the city as the capital of an independent nation. When the Iraqi Electoral Commission last month ruled that Kurds displaced by the Baath Party's "Arabization" program could vote in local elections, Arab candidates withdrew. Turkey, meanwhile, is registering ominous objections to Kurdish maneuvering for autonomy. Kurdish Democratic Party leader Massud Barzani hardly helped matters when he announced in a recent interview that "an independent Kurdish state is indeed going to be happening."

The Shia. Of immediate interest is the post-election unity of the victorious Party of Ali. As the Los Angeles Times' Ashraf Khalil notes, the United Iraqi Alliance fused together by Ayatollah Sistani comprises a number of religious and secular Shia groups, many of which--such as Dawa Islamiyya and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq--are traditional rivals. As Khalil observes, a splintering of the slate could provide an opportunity to secularists like Ayad Allawi to pick up some dissenting Shia to form a ruling coalition; on the other hand, a collapse of unity risks weakening the prestige of Sistani (the most unifying figure today in Iraqi politics) and alienating Shia from the democratic process.

Other things to look for: The fate of Moqtada "Mookie" al-Sadr. He was a big loser yesterday--especially because his fatwa to boycott the elections was generally ignored. In the Shia world, one's advancement in influence and power is determined by how many people pay attention to your pronouncements (rather like blogging); he may have slid a ways down the marja totem pole. Also, keep an eye on Ahmad Chalabi. While fighting Defense Minister Shaalan over mutual corruption charges and the Arabists in the State Department and CIA, this consummate in-fighter seems posed to play an important role in the new "secular" face of the Shia leadership. He didn't do much for Iraqi unity last week, however, when he seemed to call for Shia "autonomy" over the oil-rich southern provinces.

The Sunnis. We'll have to see their turn-out totals, especially in areas not dominated by anti-Iraqi forces. If it turns out, as I believe true, that Sunnis wanted to vote, but were prevented by fear, the "voter boycott" was in fact "voter suppression." And this, in turn, could erode the legitimacy of the Muslims Scholar's Association's "leadership"--a positive development. The MSA's politics of resentment, grievance and non-participation in democracy (with the telling exception of oil-rich Kirkuk) echo the PLO tactics and could doom the Sunnis to similar cycles of despair and violence. To save their clerical skins, the MSA and their allies will use any sliver of plausibility to decry the elections as illegitimate (especially if voter turn-out results drop below 50 percent). But even they seem to see less room for maneuvering, as evident in their demands that they have a seat at table when it comes time to hammer out a constitution. Sunnis, thy name is chutzpah.

The Anti-Iraq forces. Allah be praised, they were the biggest losers of the day--although there will no doubt be further attacks. But the political, rhetorical and psychological terrain has changed. In the past, the homegrown Iraqi militants got a lot of mileage from their claims that they fought a "foreign occupation." Whatever little merit that argument possessed has vanished with the election: now the ex-Baathist Saddamites appear in their true light--fascists attempting to overturn a democratic government. At what temperature does the legitimacy of reactionaries burn? Fahrenheit 9-11.
As for the foreign jihadists, Z-Man declared war against the elections and then couldn't stop them. History--despite what would-be restorers of the Caliphate might say--is not on his side. The fighting will continue--that's what jihadists do, after all--but the legitimacy of the mujaheddin has been shot by ballots not bullets, and time will bring an end to their nihilistic bloodshed. This isn't Afghanistan, 1990s, Z-Man, and you're not fighting a doomed dictatorial state. Something you will no doubt reflect upon when you're sitting in an Iraqi prison, as you will most surely be soon.

The Left. Hopeless. Shameful. History will record that the U.S. could have saved tremendous loss of life and treasure had we liberated Iraqi with more troops and a proper "after-victory" plan. But the chronicles will also show that America could have saved time, money and--most especially, lives--had the Left contributed its valuable resources to the liberation effort as well. Imagine if feminists, labor leaders, environmentalists, civil rights activists, artists and the media had joined in the struggle instead of sitting on the sidelines--or worse, assisting the fascists? Imagine if the clarion cry of freedom and democracy had arisen from a unified progressive front consisting of conservatives and liberals? Just as we've learned how much succor the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong took from the anti-war protesters of the 1960s, we will someday learn how the parochial, small-minded, narrow-souled opposition to the establishment of democracy in Iraq stiffen the fascist backbone of the "insurgency." But of course, the Michael Moores, Robert Fisks, George Galloways, Ted Kennedys and innumerable Hollywood celebrities and academics of this world will not care--they will always find reporters, voters, fans and tenure committees willing to dull the sting of conscience.

Our soldiers. Job well done. But it ain't over till its over. And it won't be over until Iraq reaches one benchmark: the government has the monopoly on violence. In other words, not until an Iraqi army and police force takes the guns away--literally or metaphorically--from the country too-many armed militias can our men and women go home.

The Iraqi people. From now on, we will identify the true Iraqi Resistance fighter as an average man or woman brandishing the weapon of a blue-tipped index finger.

Bloggers. I can't imagine how the liberation of Iraq would have progressed without the hundreds, the thousands, of blogs that cut through the anti-war bias of the MSM. By giving a voice to people and viewpoints which otherwise would have gone silent, bloggers helped articulate the cause of democracy and civil rights that lies at the base of this conflict. Which make me wonder: how would bloggers have affected the course of Vietnam War?

On that note, I will close out my guest appearance on Chester. I can't thank Josh enough for the opportunity to address you all. I only hope my contributions added something to your appreciation of the war, the election and the Iraqi people. Now, with a wave of my own blue-tipped fingertips, I shall bid you farewell.

Written by Chester at 8:17 PM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

Fanfare for the Common Iraqi

[Got about 5-8 quality posts for you tonight folks . . . here's the first.]

WOW. Amazing. Go see this immediately. You will not be disappointed:

http://adamkeiper.blogs.com/comparevideo/files/Iraq_Election.wmv

Thanks to Alert Reader James for posting that link earlier and emailing it as well. Truly spectacular. Give it a sec to load.

This is private diplomacy at its finest.

UPDATE: There's a Hi-res version too.

http://adamkeiper.blogs.com/comparevideo/files/Iraq_Election_HiRes.wmv

Send Adam Keiper an email complimenting his work if you like.

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This Week at The Adventures of Chester

Here's some of the great stuff lined up for this week:

1. On Monday, Steven Vincent offers his final guest-blogging post, with follow-up thoughts about the Iraqi elections.

2. Monday after midnight: Chester wonders about the future of the Middle East.

3. Tuesday after midnight: Chester examines not one, but two Thomas P.M. Barnett articles.

4. Wednesday: A new guest-blogger offers thoughts about an under-covered topic.

5. Thursday: A MAJOR CONTENT ANNOUNCEMENT

6. This isn't the half of it. There'll still be reactions and commentary on the day's news. Please check back often, and if you are so inclined, any donations would be greatly appreciated.

7. Also: Note a brand new feature in the top of the sidebar: The comic art of Chris Muir is now syndicated in a new page and updated daily. His work is excellent and very entertaining. Check it out.

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DeepBlog

DeepBlog.com: An Easy Guide & Portal to Great Blogs is a great new place to find all kinds of blogs.

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The Latest Good News From Iraq

Chrenkoff has just published the latest in his Good News From Iraq Series.

See it also here.

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January 30, 2005

FLASH: Steven Vincent on Fox and Friends Monday, 6:15am Eastern

Steven Vincent, who's been guest-blogging here over the weekend, will be on Fox and Friends Monday morning at 6:15am Eastern time. Tune in, tape or TiVo!

Steven will be making one more post-election post here tomorrow. He's been a great contributor.

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The "ink of freedom"

An Alert Reader emails:

On Fox News an American Muslim cleric called the ink on the finger "the ink of freedom."  What an awesome thought.  An Iraqi said, "I dipped my finger deep as if into the eye of all the world's tyrants."

Great stuff.

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Great Political Cartoon Site

Day By Day by Chris Muir is a political cartoon site. It is awesome. Check out today's cartoon and some of the past work. Great stuff. Be sure to move your cursor over the blog title too.

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Some actual debate takes place for 40 minutes on the Democractic Underground . . .

. . . and then the posts are pulled off. But they're captured for eternity here. How embarassing for the Dems. Truly Sad.

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Lest The Adventures of Chester be accused of being too partisan, we'll say this: allegations like those made by Maureen Dowd about US interrogation methods need some sounding out. If they are true, it seems that perhaps the interrogators were a bit . . . overzealous.

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Good Election Commentary at the fourth rail

Bill Roggio provides a great roundup of what Al Qaeda said they would do vs. what they did in Iraq on Sunday. See it here. Looks like Zarqawi and AQ just can't quite walk the walk.

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Geraldo on Civilian Casualties: "This makes any civilized person absolutely sick."

Go see now: Iraq, The Vote: 'This Makes Any Civilized Person Absolutely Sick'.

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The Voting Rights Act, 2005

[Chester here: This is another post from guest-blogger Steven Vincent. Be sure to check out his book "In the Red Zone" in the sidebar, and his blog here.]
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Nasir Hasan once told me that on April 9, 2003--the day Saddam's statue fell in Baghdad's Firdusi Square--he learned that "history can actually smile."

Well, my friends, history has just smiled again.

I write this just after the polls have closed in Iraq. Over 70% turnout, we hear. Minimal violence. Election results, of course, are not yet known--except this: the big winners were the Iraqi people. And democracy.

Let us pause to consider: In a week when we commemorated the liberation 60 years ago of the Nazi death-camp at Auschwitz--on the day that, 72 years ago, Weimar president Paul Hindenburg appointed Adolph Hitler Chancellor of Germany--the forces of democracy and freedom have won their greatest victory since the fall of the Berlin Wall. There are few words to describe the magnitude and magnificence of this moment. Just as there are no adequate words to describe the sacrifices of the Iraqi people and American soldiers that brought the world this moment.

Look at these pictures from Iraq (scroll down). No doubt we'll be seeing many more shots like this. Average people. Two years ago few of us (including myself) gave much thought about them; they were unknown, unseen, blotted out by the abysmal shadow of Saddam Hussein. Yet today, they were the focus of the entire world. Today, the course of history pivoted on their fingertips--fingertips stained not with the blood of tyranny, but the ink of democracy.

And their enemies, what of them? What of those who indulged in grandiose fantasies of "blood baths" and "massacres" rather than engage in the quiet, humble process of elections? They--thank God--could not make good their threats in full. Oh, we can guess their next tact will be to claim the elections were "illegitimate" (unlike, of course, their nihlistic "insurgency"). But, as Osama bin Laden once said, history rides with the "strong horse." In the competition between Al Qaeda and democracy, Al Qaeda lost. Big time. Who's the strong horse now?

What to look for in the next few days: Sunni voting results from areas not under threat of terrorism. If we can determine that Sunnis would have voted if not in fear of their lives, then we can gauge the measure of their committment to democracy. If, as I suspect, it is high, then we must immediately replace the concept of a "Sunni boycott" with "Sunni vote suppression." Boycotts are voluntary acts of non-participation; suppression is when you use force to prevent someone from acting. And if terrorists and their clerical allies suppressed voting, then doesn't that "de-legitimize" their claim to represent Sunni Arabs? In this case, contending that Sunnis didn't vote because they supported Zarqawi and the Muslim Scholars Association would be like saying blacks didn't vote in the post-bellum South because they agreed with Jim Crow and the KKK.

And what of our friends on the Left? I'm sorry they can't share in our joy--because there is no reason they should not. Alas, like the Muslim Scholars Association, they, too, decided to "boycott" the elections. For example, here is what the great lefty website Daily Kos had to say yesterday:

The war is long past lost. Time to pack it in, and save the lives of our men and women in uniform that will otherwise face a barrage of bullets and RPG rounds during their extended stay in the desert.

Clearly, Dean-shill Marko Zuniga has an odd perception of liberalism. On a day when millions of Iraqi citizens stood up against the specter of fascism to exercise their rights as free and dignified human beings, Zuniga claims the election is "simply an exercise in pretty pictures." Tell that to the Iraqis who danced and cried for joy at the chance to vote, Mr. Zuniga. Tell that to people who have suffered for decades under a tyrant whose crimes were brutal to the point of madness. Tell that to the men and women who died to make this day a reality.

But Zuniga can't top the outrage posted on TalkLeft. First, the site runs this excerpt from Chris Allbrittion's blog from Iraq:

So far, not as much violence as everybody feared. The question is why? Is the insurgency taking a pass on this one? (It's possible. Our sources in the insurgency say the election will make no difference to them, so why expend a lot of energy?) Is the insurgency much weaker than previously thought? Or is the level of security sufficient to keep it in check? If that's the case, then that is discouraging, too, because the measures that have kept today safe (so far) are truly draconian. No driving, dusk to dawn curfews, states of emergency. If that's what it takes to provide security in Iraq, why erase one police state only to replace it with another?

Beneath this tactless, heartless passage, they post a photo of a U.S. soldier in sunglasses. Message received: the U.S. has formed a police state similar to Saddam's regime. Tell that to the Marines, folks.

But let's let that pass. Today is not for us, it is for the Iraqis. No doubt there will be further victories to enjoy and disappointments to mull over in the days to come. For now, let's contemplate the meaning of democracy and the spread of freedom in a hitherto dark land. And let us celebrate, for today history did more than smile. It cheered.

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Election Followup

10:29 This ends the live-blogging. More coming later today here at The Adventures of Chester. Probably at least two more posts -- more in-depth than the live-blogging. Thanks for stopping by!

10:24 Looks llike Central Command released some new stuff overnight: DECLASSIFIED AERIAL VIDEO FOOTAGE TRACKING INSURGENT ATTACK ON U.S. EMBASSY AVAILABLE, TASK FORCE BAGHDAD TROOPS CAPTURE SEVEN INSURGENTS RESPONSIBLE FOR EMBASSY ROCKET ATTACK, MEDIA ADVISORY: AERIAL VIDEO FOOTAGE OF CENTRAL BAGHDAD DISTRICT RESIDENTS GOING TO POLLING SITES AVAILABLE TO MEDIA, and in Afghanistan, COALITION FORCES RECOVER WEAPONS CACHES.

10:20 Michael Ledeen has this to say on The Corner:

The Iraqi elections are, we can all hope, a lethal blow to the racism of the CIA and the State Dept arabists, all of whom have been saying for decades that democracy just can't work in "that part of the world," because "those people" just aren't capable of democracy. They accordingly saw their role as identifying "our thugs," and getting them into power. The big, brave turnout was an explicit and very dramatic confirmation of the president's view of the war between freedom and tyranny. The Iraqi people want freedom, and they are prepared to risk their lives for it, provided that they get support and half-way decent security.

I hope that the president and his aides draw the obvious lesson: that the other peoples of the region are similar, they are quite capable and fully prepared to govern themselves. If more than seventy per cent of Iraqis voted today, as it seems, imagine how many Iranians would vote. And Syrians, too. And Egytians, and Saudis, and the rest. Think revolution. Please?

In a similar vein, Powerline has this (ht: Instapundit.com):

Somehow, I had missed the fact that Iraqi expatriates are voting in Syria. Thus, Iraqis living in Syria can participate in a democratic process, but Syrians can't. A bit odd, that, but it's another example of the impact this election could have in the Arab world.

10:16 Just caught some of the political commentary at The Corner on National Review Online, where one writer speculates that it will be Kerry vs. Clinton for the 2008 Democratic nomination. This seems like great news. Most of the dumb things that Kerry said that came back to haunt him occurred in the primaries. Perhaps a repeat will ensue . . . enough about all that . . .

10:11 I'd love to see the ratings stats for Kerry's appearance on Meet the Press this morning. Bet they were low.

10:04 Check out Ali's thoughts at Free Iraqi:

This was my way to stand against those who humiliated me, my family and my friends. It was my way of saying," You're history and you don't scare me anymore". It was my way to scream in the face of all tyrants, not just Saddam and his Ba'athists and tell them, "I don't want to be your, or anyone's slave. You have kept me in your jail all my life but you never owned my soul". It was my way of finally facing my fears and finding my courage and my humanity again.

I slept really late but I woke up at 6.30. I shaved (I do this once every century) and dressed as I was going to a party. The phone rang and I let it ring for a while before I answered. "Hey Ba'athist! Why are you still asleep? Why not go and vote?" a friend's voice came through teasing me.

And, as he leaves the polling station:

As I left one of the guards said to me as he handed me back my cellular phone,"God bless you and your beloved ones. We don't know how to thank you. Please excuse any inconvinience on our part. We wish we didn't have to search you or limit your freedom. You are heroes."

9:55 Looks like a success! 72% turnout is the number being tossed around. Iraqi blogger Hammorabi has this to say:

Today is the day in which the souls of our martyrs comforted!

Today those who were killed in Iraq or wounded among our friends from the USA and other allies, who helped us to reach this day, are with us again to inscribe their names with Gold for ever!

And:

As we expected the enemies of God and freedom send their mentally retarded cockroaches in some suicidal attacks.

On the top of our privileged today are those who were killed in their way for voting. Their names should be perpetuated for ever! Their names should be written in Gold in Al-Fordos Square in Baghdad!

Our thanks go to George W Bush who will enter the history as the leader of the freedom and democracy in the recent history! He and his people are our friends for ever!

At this moment the voting closed and we will see the results then!

God bless Iraq and America.

Written by Chester at 10:03 AM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

January 29, 2005

Live-Blogging the Elections -- Refresh Often!

[All times US Central; Add nine hours for Iraqi time.]

4:25 Well folks, I've turned into a pumpkin. Actually that's not true. I could keep on until the polls close, but Mrs. Chester will wake up and see that I haven't slept and then unplug the computer and check me into an internet program. Tomorrow (Sunday) morning, guest-blogger Steven Vincent will be offering another piece on the election, and The Adventures of Chester will continue with commentary on the outcome later in the day. For more election coverage, go to Iraq Elections newswire and use the editor's links there.

Having been inspired by Geraldo Rivera's (now there's a line I never thought I'd type) comparison of the Iraqi elections to the civil rights movement in the US, here's a final quote for you, from LBJ, before he signed the Voting Rights Act of 1965:

I speak tonight for the dignity of man and the destiny of democracy.

I urge every member of both parties -- Americans of all religions and of all colors -- to join me in that cause.

At times history and fate meet at a single time in a single place to shape a turning point in man's unending search for freedom. So it was at Lexington and Concord. So it was a century ago at Appomattox. So it was last week in Selma, Alabama.

So it is today in Baghdad.

Good night!

4:09am Meanwhile, in Kuwait, security forces have had a shootout with terrorists.

3:55 Just checked the time-zone map on sitemeter. If you are in Iraq and reading this, any updates you have are welcome. Shoot me an email with your own observations.

3:53 Another new photo is up at Cigars in the Sand. The Iraqis are displaying their inked fingers proudly.

3:50 Fox just reported a new suicide bombing in Baghdad killed two Iraqi policemen.

3:46 The latest update to the BBC Reporters' log: Iraqi elections is from Ben Brown in Basra, who notes,

Turnout here has been extraordinary. We've been to a few polling stations in the city centre and we've seen huge queues of men and women who were searched separately.

Some have had to wait for an hour before casting their ballot.

3:37 I guess that answers the bluefinger question: won't be a security issue if everyone has it.

3:36 Wow. That earlier pic is not the half of it. See Cigars in the Sand for several great election day photos. My favorite is the guy being wheeled to the polls. Ryan also writes this:

So far our team has made three round trips to the polling station. For the record, that's 63 Iraqis voting. Every busload has sang and danced the entire drive home.

After a large numbers of explosions this morning, things seem to have gotten quieter (at least in Baghdad). Let's hope it holds.

3:33 Iraq Elections newswire asks about the security aspect of marking voters' thumbs with blue ink. I wondered about this too. Seems like an easy way to identify voters. Wonder how long it lasts . . .

3:30 Here's a photo of Iraqis lining up to vote in Baghdad (hat-tip: Mudville Gazette, where you'll also find a roundup on the atmosphere in several key Iraqi cities yesterday.)

3:17 Here's an opinion piece in Al-Ahram which asks for greater debate between political parties in Egypt. You've really got to wonder how the Iraqi elections will be perceived in the Arab world . . . Next week's MEMRI translations should be good . . .

3:11 Here's a link to the frontpage of Al-Ahram Weekly, an Egyptian newsmagazine. It features four stories, and the one which I read had a pretty predictable viewpoint about the difficulties surrounding the elections.

3:06 About to start plumbing the depths of the Arab news for stories . . .

3:01 Quick admin note: If anyone out there is interested in being on the email list for The Adventures of Chester, just shoot an email to "terrier_manchester@yahoo.com" with "subscribe" in the subject line. You'll get one email a week with details of what's going on 'round these parts. A couple of folks asked to be unsubscribed and then they got another update anyway -- sorry, I was out of town and couldn't fix. I'll take you off the next one. Though I guess if you want to be unsubscribed, you probably aren't reading this. Oh well. By the way, I don't share email lists with anyone.

3:00am This is the midpoint of election day and all the indicators point to a success so far -- lots can still go wrong, but seems to be going off pretty well so far.

2:50 Chrenkoff has a new post up contrasting two emails he's received, one from an Iraqi describing the family getting ready to go vote, the other from the father of a Marine who was injured for life on New Year's Day.

2:45 Just stumbled upon Ali's thoughts (formerly of Iraq the Model fame). Ali is now blogging at Free Iraqi.

2:32 The Fox ticker just reported that 6 car bomb blasts had gone off outside US and multi-national forces facilities near the Green Zone. Said no US casualties had been reported. Maybe that's cause US forces disrupted the attacks such that they were not successful . . . pure speculation . . .

2:24 When I lived in Diwaniyah in Iraq, we had hired some contractors to rebuild the looted university building we were living in. Every now and then, I'd be in my quarters and the head contractor would come in and measure something or check out the electrical sockets. Stuff like that. Once he had his two sons with them and I gave them some candy (melted) that friends had sent me. I talked him up a little as he spoke English enough to get stuff across. He asked me how old I thought his sons were. I would have guessed about 8 or 9 judging by their size. But before I could answer he told me they were 13 (they were twins) and the reason they were so short is because milk had been hard to come by under the sanctions. But this gentleman wasn't bitter about that. He blamed Saddam. Then, using some hand motions and simple English he told me he wished Iraq could be the 51st state in the union. I bet that guy is voting today.

2:22 This bodes well. Rantburg strikes again:

Many Iraqis living near Saddam Hussein’s hometown said they will vote today because the ballot not violence will end Iraq’s occupation by U.S.-led coalition troops.

The small town of Alam, 10 miles northeast of Saddam’s home city of Tikrit, is relatively quiet unlike other Sunni Muslim areas west and north of Baghdad that roil with militancy and fierce opposition to the national elections.

The local leader of one of Iraq’s largest clans here is bidding for a seat in the 275-member National Assembly that will govern the country and draft a permanent constitution.

Mashaan al-Jbouri, who heads the 37-member Liberation and Reconciliation Front, has said the country can be freed from occupation only through peaceful means.

Hasan Mohammed Khazaal, a 24-year-old university student, backed that notion.

"We will have a new constitution and I can get rid of the occupiers through elections. This is the only way to evict the occupiers,’ said Khazaal, who decorated his car with posters of al-Jbouri, the local chief of the Jbour clan.

Al-Jbouri served as the governor of Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, for a few months after the fall of Saddam’s regime in April 2003. He is now a member of the transitional National Council, a government oversight body.

Maj. Gen. Suleiman Youssef Ahmad, a retired officer who served in Saddam’s army, has gone house to house in Alam explaining to people what elections are and why they should vote.

"I am not only going to vote. I am guiding the people how to do it,’ he said.

Another official, 50-year-old Brig. Gen. Mattar Saleh, said he was voting as a means to get foreign troops out of Iraq.

"We are Iraqis who oppose sectarian division, and our aim is to liberate our country from occupation,’ he said. "I can tell the government that I will elect to ask the occupiers to leave the country through peaceful means.’

2:16 Didn't know Sistani was born in Iran. Interesting:

Although he shaped almost every facet of today’s elections, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani has no plans to vote, one of his representatives said yesterday.

The cleric leads this nation’s 15 million Shiite Muslims, 60 percent of the population, and he may be the most powerful man in Iraq. But Sistani was born in Mashhad, Iran, he is an Iranian citizen, and, according to the rules of the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, he is not eligible to vote, the representative said.

"I assure you Sayed Sistani won’t vote in this election, because he doesn’t meet all the required conditions as spelled out by the IECI," said Sayed Murtdha al Kashmiri, Sistani’s representative in London. "He will not vote, but at the same time, Sayed Sistani obliges every Iraqi to vote in the elections."

2:00am Fox now breaking that a suicide bomber hit a polling station/school in West Baghdad, but the reporter is quick to note that it is 4 hours into polling and the terrorists had promised 400 suicide bombers -- only only a handful so far. Maybe some got to their targets and decided to vote . . . Shepard Smith (I think) also notes that 11 hours into the calendar day of Jan 30th, not a single US soldier has been killed. Let's pray it stays that way.

1:53 More on Geraldo's finest hour: Thanks to an Alert Reader for posting a link to the transcript of Geraldo's report. An excerpt:

GERALDO RIVERA [FOX NEWS]: I don't want to overstate, because I'm very emotional right now. Because I was in that town, just behind me. These GIs have done it, they've created an environment, despite the explosions, despite all the news you've heard of the suicide bomber, snipers, this and that. In this town, in this community, with 15,000 registered voters, we have just returned from the polling place. It is absolutely packed. Roll the video. There are men, women, families coming. They are casting their ballot for the first time. It was so inspiring. It was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen in my entire life. It really is like the Berlin Wall going down in 1989. It really is like the beginning, like the dawn of the civil rights era, when black people could vote for the first time. It is the most amazing sight. Only a hard-bitten cynic, only a person with absolutely no upside to their feeling of optimism, could look askance at what is happening, truly happening today. People are applauding themselves, they look like Rocky coming out of the polling place. There are women voting for the first time, and it's just the most incredible thing. It's so heartwarming to see it.

Wow. Go read the whole thing: Iraq, The Vote: 'One of the Most Amazing Things I've Ever Seen'.

1:47 The Fox reporter in Mosul just finished a report and the anchor thanked him for his "bird's eye view of this great event." Would a CNN anchor even deign to call this a "great event?"

1:44 Update from Iraq Elections newswire: Long lines of folks are queued up in Mosul waiting . . . and the Iraqi Election Commission reports that all 5200 polling places opened on time . . .

1:37 Something tells me there are two things wrong with this story in Al Jazeera (Al-Yawer: Most Iraqis won’t vote in Sunday’s elections): 1. Al-Yawer's remarks are out of context, misinterpreted, or mistranslated, 2. Al Jazeera is wrong. Check this out. Apparently it's like Independence Day down in Najaf:

Despite the presence of thousands of special police and Iraqi National Guardsmen, Najaf had the festive air yesterday of a country in celebration.

"This is the glorious day Iraqis have been awaiting so patiently," said Raad Abdali, 26, a police officer standing guard at the al-Shekeri Mosque. "Election day will open like a flower, revealing our future."

The jovial atmosphere offered a marked counterpoint to much of the rest of Iraq, which has been plagued by anxiety and fear, with an intimidation and bombing campaign targeting voters and polling sites.

And we don't read enough of these stories, of which there are no doubt plenty:

Like many of the city’s men, Abdullah spent several short stints in prison in the 1980s for being a member of the Islamic Da’wa Party, one of a handful of opposition groups that fought Hussein’s rule from inside Iraq.

In 1991, Abdullah fought in the short-lived Shi’ite uprising that followed the war in Kuwait. For 19 days, he helped run the gold-domed shrine of Imam Ali, a revered pilgrimage destination and a funnel for enormous amounts of money tithed by devout Shi’ites.

Hussein’s army quickly quashed the rebellion, and Abdullah proudly displays the scars from the torture he endured in Abu Ghraib prison: a burn mark across his left shin from a heated metal bar, the disfigured muscle above his left knee.

His posture is awkward from being hung from the ceiling by his arms, which were tied behind his back.

The election, he said, offers a powerful salve against those dark memories. "We are thirsty for this day," he said.

1:26 The Fox ticker is reporting that Qatar is speeding up its plans to privatize Al Jazeera due to pressure from the US government . . . good news by my watch. Watch the left cry foul on this one, but shouldn't they rejoice anytime a state gives up control of a media outlet? I bet the US gov't pressure took the form of something like "hey -- we have spent billions to relocate our CentCom HQ to your country and this is the thanks we get?" I bet the Qatari economy gets a pretty nice injection from the presence of a large US installation . . .

1:20 Posted this a moment ago, but lost it: Just had a thought that if only the self-disenfranchising terrorists had gone the political route, they could hire some DNC operatives to plant false exit poll results in another hour or so . . . Imagine the headlines: "Imprisoned Saddam wins as write-in candidate with 100% of the vote."

1:10 Forty-five reasons to care about the elections in Iraq (hat-tip: Iraq Elections newswire)

1:03 This is Geraldo's finest hour. He can't contain his excitement on the ground in Baghdad -- he just said, "I refuse to speak in measured tones. This is truly exhilirating." And he called this, his sixth trip to Iraq since the war started, as the best one yet. Fox is just letting him go. He just compared the election to the fall of the Berlin Wall and 1776.

12:59 While scouring the internet for news, I just stumbled on the thoughts on one expatriate Iraqi who has just voted in the past few days. Very interesting. See here.

12:48 Here tis: The Watchdogs of Fallujah - By Bing West. Lots of down and dirty on UAVs.

12:37 About that Green Zone attack . . . Several observations to make. First the details: at 7:30pm in Iraq yesterday, 30 minutes after the evening curfew began on election eve, terrorists fired a rocket into the Green Zone in Baghdad and killed two US citizens. Now: Fox was playing video released for the US gov't, downloaded from a UAV that watched the terrorists gather in a group of 7, then there's a puff of black smoke -- probably the launch of the rocket -- then the bad guys scatter away -- perhaps because they've learned to be afraid of counterbattery fire. They obviously didn't know the UAV was watching. The overall effect is like one of those police videos out of LA where the criminals have nowhere to run. The US military found 7 people and 5 of them had explosives residue on their hands. The Fox anchor made some comment to the effect that little info about these UAVs and their capabilities had been released before, but loyal readers of The Adventures of Chester may remember a couple of links way back two or so months ago . . . stand by . . .

12:33 On the Fox ticker: Reuters reports a bomb has exploded at a school used as a polling station in Basra . . . just had a flaskback to those Homeland Security alerts over the summer about documents being found in Baghdad detailing the layout of US elementary schools . . . anyway, no word on casualties in Basra or the size and location of the blast . . .

12:27 Yesterday, US soldiers detained two individuals suspected of polling center attacks. Quote from Central Command:

CAMP LIBERTY, Baghdad -- Soldiers attached to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, detained two suspects at 3:50 p.m., Jan. 29, in the western Baghdad district of Mansour. The pair is suspected of plotting attacks against polling centers in the Baghdad area.

The suspects were detained at a check point where their names were matched to a list of suspects.

The two men are being held for further questioning.

12:18 Friends of Democracy carries two audio clips with info from yesterday in Najaf:

Hussein Al Qadi, reporting from Najaf, sent us two audio feeds in English:

1. The police and border forces found caches of weapons on farms west and south of the city.

2. Downtown Najaf was closed for the annual Shi'ite festival at the shrine of Imam Ali

I bet the Friends of Democracy bloggers in Iraq are out and about gathering info, etc and we'll have updates later on the FOD site . . .

12:16 Fox news has removed its breaking news banner about the possible bombings . . . and CNN reports a blast hit behind a polling station . . . (via Iraq Elections newswire).

12:12 Just found a one page roundup of the sentiment among Iraqi bloggers: Try this.

12:08 Just decided to switch the format. Updates now at the top of the post, old stuff at the bottom. . .

12:01 am, Sunday, 30 Jan: Most of the Iraqi bloggers haven't updated since yesterday, but their last posts are worth a visit. All ar dripping with pre-election excitement. See: IRAQ THE MODEL, Hammorabi, Live From Dallas . . .

11:57 CNN and Fox seem focused on Baghdad . . . what about Basra, Mosul, Kirkuk, Najaf? Must find more . . .

11:53 Slightly off-topic, while we wait on word of any bombings in Baghdad: just caught this story on cnn.com about a Marine who has survived nine different bombings intact. Used to be a minot-league baseball shortstop . . .

11:47 The Friends of Democracy site has a great map with the province names of Iraq listed: Friends of Democracy - Iraq Election News - Reports: Iraqi Provinces (Governorates). This is a great quick refresher for anyone who needs some quick situational awareness. Note: as it mentioned often, the four provinces which are not yet declared completely secure are: Al-Anbar, Baghdad, Babil, and Salah ad Din. As can be seen, these are more or less the Sunni triangle . . . great map.

11:43 Check out this post: The Damning "But" (ht: Instapundit.com).

11:42 Fox now says several loud blasts have been reported . . .

11:41 Fox reporting breaking news that a bomb may have gone off at a polling place in Baghdad . . .

Written by Chester at 11:43 PM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

Election Live-Blogging Commences . . .

The Adventures of Chester has just made the executive decision to live-blog the elections for the next couple of hours. Stand by . . .

Written by Chester at 11:38 PM | Link | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

T-minus 25 minutes until polls open in Iraq . . .

Just an FYI . . .

Much more to come later tonight and tomorrow here on The Adventures of Chester . . .

Written by Chester at 9:39 PM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

Meanwhile, in that other new democracy . . .

Central Command reports that:

The trend in Afghan citizens and security forces assisting coalition forces by turning in weapons caches has continued to increase over the past two years. In 2003, for example, only 10 percent of all weapons caches were turned in by local Afghan citizens (not including Afghan security forces). In 2004, that number increased to 31 percent.

Since October 2004, for example, 236 weapons caches have been discovered throughout Afghanistan. Of these 236 caches, 99 were turned in to coalition forces by local Afghan citizens, local Afghan government officials, or Afghan security forces.

This trend is important for many reasons – to create a secure environment, to ensure stability and to improve the quality of life for all Afghans. But, it is also important because of an incident on Tuesday.

A local citizen turned in two rocket propelled grenade rounds to Afghan soldiers working with coalition forces. When the Afghan soldiers went to investigate where the rounds came from, they discovered children playing with an even larger cache of RPG rounds. These unattended caches present an even greater danger to innocent people who may come upon them, and it is important that everyone work together to eliminate this hazard.

Another Central Command release notes:

MOSUL, IRAQ – Multi-National Forces from 1st Brigade, 25th Infantry Division (Stryker Brigade Combat Team) were able to defuse a roadside bomb following a tip received through the Joint Coordination Center in northern Iraq Jan. 28.

The tip came from an Iraqi citizen who had called the Joint Coordination Center to inform them of the bomb planted in northeastern Mosul. Only four days ago another tip in the same area resulted in a roadside bomb being defused. These types of courageous acts demonstrate the commitment of Iraqi citizens to ensuring a safe and peaceful Iraq.

Looks as though the trend of greater civilian cooperation is on the rise in both countries . . . Central Command has stories like this up all the time . . .

Written by Chester at 11:28 AM | Link | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

A Prayer for Iraqis About to Vote

[This is Chester: Today, guest-blogger Steven Vincent offers a prayer that the many Iraqis he met during his trips to Iraq will prosper under Iraq's emerging democracy . . . check out his blog at www.redzoneblog.com and be sure to click the link in the sidebar to have a look at his book on his travels in Iraq, "In The Red Zone."]
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Tonight, as Saturday in North America moves toward its close, the people of Iraq--most of them, insha'allah--will be preparing to vote. It will be a long night for us, but an even longer day for them, crowded with acts of courage and violence, despair and inspiration--everything we've come to expect in a land that, for some of us, has become more familiar than we could have guessed, or in many cases, wished. There's nothing we can do now, of course, save offer our thoughts to those Iraqis who choose to vote, and anxiously await the course of democracy.

We bloggers intend, or at least hope, that our words are read by as wide an audience as possible. Today, though, I write with but a few people in mind - friends, acquaintances, strangers I met in Iraq during my all-too-brief travels through the country. People whose faces and voices will forever remain with me, who today form the living fulcrum upon which the events of the morrow will turn. People for whom, 10,000 miles away, I offer my prayers.

Like bulky, bearded Esam, whose irrepressible charm disguised the despair most Iraqis feel about their brutal society: recently, I posted a letter from him describing life in a Baghdad bereft of electricity, where nights are broken by the roar of American jets and distant explosions. I pray, too, for Ahmed, perhaps the most easy-going Iraqi I met, who broke my heart last week when he sent me a terse text-message reading "I am OK...not OK...miss you." Perhaps their new democracy will bring, along with accountable government and an independent judiciary, some electricity and heat.

I offer prayers for Zena, the Baghdad housewife who struggles to raise three small daughters in a city where kidnapping children is as common as car bombs. The internet cafe where we met is closed, a victim of the insurgency's targeting of foreigners. She spends her days now in hours-long queues, waiting to fill her car with gas. She is tired, worried, distraught. May the new democracy bring her additional supplies of fuel, along with law and order to the streets.

And Rand, the Christian woman who also worked at the internet cafe. She left the cafe to work for Iraqna, the cellphone company, which provides her the amazing opportunity to travel to Egypt and Syria. Back home in Baghdad, however, the church she used to attend was bombed by Zarqawi. Her Christian friends have begun to fear for their lives. May the new democracy bring the capture of the terror master and his malignant ilk--as well as comfort to the Christians of Iraq.

And Naseer, brilliant, tormented, forever perched on the edge of melancholy and despair. His insights into the Iraqi soul had a profound impact on my own views of his nation. Recently, in a Frontpage essay he expressed a steely resolve to vote and--as he put it--"resist" the paramilitary fascists. He above all the Iraqis I met bears the emotional scars of Saddam and a thirst for justice. May democracy bring an end to the "insurgency" and peace to my dear, tortured friend.

Nor can I forget Nour, my beautiful Basran comrade, guide and protector. For me, she embodied the indominable but endangered spirit of women in a land that treats females as second-class creatures. Her faith that moderate Islam and democracy represent the best hope for her country caused me to re-evaluate my notions of religion and politics. My prayers are never far from her. And by Allah's good grace, she seems to be doing well: an e-mail from her today tells me she is busy working with international journalists covering the elections. May He continue to bring her good fortune, democracy and the freedom she so desperately desires and deserves.

There are others. Mohammad--a good-natured bear of man whose fondest wish was to design books for children; Ahmad, handsome, cosmopolitan, plagued by rumors that he spied for Saddam's secret police; Qasim, the silver-haired, silver-tongued, crypto-Baathist impresario of the Hewar Gallery; Dhia, who took me through the Sunni Triangle at peril to his life; Samir, who rescued me at a religious festival when Zarqawi killed over a hundred people with suicide bombs. May democracy bring them what they never had under the shadow of Saddam, and what the paramilitaries would once again deny them: a future.

Some Iraqis will not vote out of fear, resentment or apathy. Many will not because they are forever beyond the ballot box or the terrorist. They number in the thousands, these men and women, transformed in a flash from living beings to figures on a casualty sheet too long to comprehend. And so I pray for one, an Iraqi woman who worked for the CPA, whom I know only from a faded photograph in a makeshift memorial--although I saw the wreckage caused by the sucide attack that killed her. May democracy bring meaning to her life; may Hadeel not have died in vain.

There are more, many more, enough to tax a reader's patience, and so I will close. But not before I offer a final prayer--for our troops, standing guard over the first stumbling steps of the Iraqi infant America has helped bring into the world. May tomorrow's elections and the democracy it promises bring them something, too: a journey home.

Written by at 10:41 AM | Link | Comments (1) | Print Article

Obsidian Order: Followup

This is a followup to this post, below about a debate on the seeming problems with several different shots of a car bomb in Baghdad.

The conversation in the comments section at Obsidian Order (See The Obsidian Order: A Very Special Effect) mentions the frequency with which two Reuters photographers find themselves near the scene of car-bombings or among terrorists in action. A commenter notes:

A google search of the photographers shows that while Khalid Mohammed has few photos to his name, none of which show an obvious pattern, the same does not apply to the other two.

Both Ali Jasim and Ali Al-Saadi have quite a number of photos of insurgents in action with the Sadr militia and Mehdi army. Also both are credited with photos of the american corpses hanging from the bridge in Fallujah. Ali Jasim's are the most recognized as he has the snap of the people beating the men's ashes with their shoes. This would seem to indicate that they have good contacts with the insurgents and could, I am not saying that they were, have been notified that something would happen there at that time. Ali Jasim does have several pictures of bombs in which the flames are still quite active which seems to indicate the event was recent.

Are these the same photographers who were right on scene when mobs of Iraqis were beating and mutilating the corpses of dead Americans? To be reminded of this horror,[Alert -- it's graphic] see The Memory Hole > images: Iraqi Mob Desecrates Americans' Bodies and if you really want to see the video, there are several links on the site, but be forewarned.

Back in December, Belmont Club asked some probing questions about journalists and how they seem to be in the right place at the right time. Belmont Club reprints a letter sent to Powerline, from a reader, a Mr. O'Brien:

AFP, AP and AP TV had advance notice of the murders of contractors in Fallujah last spring, so that they could position themselves on scene. ... Apparently the reporters were tipped to go to a specific location. They were not told exactly what would take place, but they knew it was going to be a terrorist action of some type. For security reasons, the terrorists give the reporters very little notice -- just enough to get there, if everything goes right. They were told exactly what street corner to be on, where they would be expected by and under the protection of the terrorists. ("If you're anywhere else, we can't guarantee your safety.") ... After the contractors were dead and their bodies looted, the reporters stayed and encouraged the mob that had gathered to mutilate the bodies. I am told by our Arabic speakers that they can be heard egging the youths on during the video of the mutilations. "Go ahead, cut him up. What are you afraid of?"

Belmont Club's analysis continues and is fascinating:

I have no idea if these charges are true; Mr. O'Brien's allegations would surely outrage many journalists working for the Associated Press. But why, in principle, should Mr. O'Brien's allegations be withheld from students where the photos of contractors should not? All of the arguments advanced by Ms. Halperin apply to the Powerline article as well. The obvious response would be that Mr. O'Brien's allegations are 'false' while the the picture of the contractors hanging like meat from the bridge is 'true', though a moment's reflection will show that one does not disprove the other. Yet as Ms. Halperin is at pains to point out, the real truth is not contained in the actual photograph but in is its larger signification. "The image, very reminiscent of the dead American soldier being dragged through the streets of Somalia, was too important for the editors here at The Morning Call to ignore. It is a powerful photo. I suspect this particular picture will prove to be a historical flashpoint image that helps define the Iraqi conflict and who we are as a people." One could argue that O'Brien is asking equally fundamental questions about who you trust to convey the news. Ultimately, the case for preferring the AP's account and dismissing Mr. O' Brien's rests upon an appeal to the authority of the AP brand name. It rests on trust. The public knows the AP and doesn't know Mr. O'Brien, hence it is the AP's account that represents the canon.

Yet ironically we do know Mr. O'Brien, who at least has a name, while we will probably never know the identity of the "brave Iraqi" photographer who captured the execution of Iraqi election worker on Haifa Street.

I am a blogger. A private citizen. I read and write for the world to see, though only a small, miniscule slice of it does. But information about me is available here on my website.

Who are these photographers? Who are the editors who write captions for these images?

Can the military listen in on their cell phones? It might save some lives. Or at least answer some questions.

Final note: Remember the images above every time you read or hear a reference to the lack of Sunni participation in the election this weekend. Who wants to bet that some of the self-disenfranchising Sunnis are those featured smiling, waving, dancing, and beating the bodies of dead Americans in April? It's worth a thought.

Written by Chester at 1:13 AM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

GREAT Places to Follow Iraq Election News!

If you click on the topmost BlogAd in the sidebar, you will be taken to Friends of Democracy, a great new site set up with help from Spirit of America. It truly is really cool. Lots of reporting, blogging, interviews, photos, etc, about the election in Iraq. Spirit of America tells Chester this:

The information is not "candy coated" - it simply does more than emphasize terrorism and violence. It provides good news and bad. Please link to the site and check it for news. It will be especially good on election day. We'll have reports and photos coming in from all corners of Iraq.

This site will certainly be one to keep an eye on. More:

We are hosting a small conference in Washington, DC on Sunday (Jan. 30) from 1.30pm to 4pm that will provide a consolidated picture of Iraq's elections featuring prominent Iraqis, special guests (e.g.,Cliff May from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Christopher Hitchens), live call ins from the Friends of Democracy correspondents and bloggers, photos, video and stories. It will provide a picture of Iraq's elections people will not get anywhere else.

Spirit of America also offers a story on their own site: Iraqis Defy Insurgents for Spirit of America. An excerpt:

The background behind this story involves our stellar corporate partner, Triad Hospitals. Triad's CFO, Whitman Burke, who is a Marine Reservist, reponded to a call for medical supplies and equipment to be donated via the Marines to hospitals in Iraq. Triad donated medical gear from 6 hospitals and SoA involved another of our magnanimous partners, FedEx, to ship the medical supplies to a main warehouse in Texas where they were palletized and transported by FedEx to the 1st Marine Division in Iraq.

The 1st Marine Division took posession of the supplies and then arranged to have them delivered to the 2nd Marine Division. No small feat given the intense terrorist activity in the 1st MarDiv area. But, as the Marines always do, they pulled it off! The donated supplies included everything from tubing for IVs to gurneys to EKG machines.

The Adventures of Chester wholeheartedly supports Spirit of America and aks you to consider a donation to this outstanding organization! Read their site, visit Friends of Democracy, and help Iraq on the road to freedom.

UPDATE: More news from Spirit of America:

Great news! We've just received confirmation that C-SPAN is planning to cover Spirit of America's Iraq election event this Sunday from 2pm to 4pm Eastern (11am to 1pm Pacific). Please watch. Your support has made this possible. Please forward this message far and wide and encourage people to tune in.

Well, this is one blogger who knows where he'll be Sunday afternoon. Note: those times are between 11pm and 1am in Iraq . . . maybe they'll have declared a winner? Should be fascinating stuff . . .

Written by Chester at 12:45 AM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

MEMRI: Part 4 of the Iraq Election Series

The Middle East Media Research Institute has just published its latest election analysis, Iraqi Elections (IV): Platforms and Campaign Strategies. As always, MEMRI makes many interesting points. The conclusions:

There are recurrent themes in the various platforms that were highlighted. The platforms all support:

Creating a democratic, egalitarian, and federal system of government that guarantees the political freedoms of the various ethnic and religious groups.
Ending the occupation (with various degrees of urgency).
Building a strong but non-political army that protects the country's borders.
Preserving the Arab-Muslim identity of the country.
Putting an end to terrorism.
Supporting a bigger role for women in politics.
Assuring non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries.
Addressing economic reconstruction with various degrees of specificity and detail.
Fighting growing corruption in government.

Most of the platforms, however, fail to address in specific terms the most burning issues facing the voter: the loss of sense of security; unemployment; shortage of food supplies, electricity, drinking water, and, ironically, gasoline in a country rich with water resources and perhaps with the second largest oil reserves in the Middle East. There is hardly any reference to future economic policy with regard to private investment in the oil sector, the role of the private vis-à-vis the public sector, and the privatization of inefficient public entities.

The government that will be established after the elections will face enormous challenges. To succeed it will need to come up with a crash program, a "New Deal," that would provide quick and palpable relief.

Well that's MEMRI's take on things. Interesting. The rest of their piece is good as well, discussing each of the favored political organizations in detail.

Written by Chester at 12:17 AM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

January 28, 2005

A new milblog: "I Should Have Stayed Home"

A new milblog has appeared and gotten some good coverage this week. I Should Have Stayed Home... is authored by two individuals working in Baghdad who give little personal info about themselves:

Two guys working in Iraq doing their best to clue you in on the ground truth.

From the content of their posts, they seem to be in a bodyguard role, possibly contracted or US Special Forces. Very interesting on-the-ground info from each. Check it out. [hat-tip: Mudville Gazette]

Written by Chester at 11:34 PM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

Quite an interesting montage . . .

An earlier post alluded to a controversy in the blogosphere about the fortunate presence of wire service photographers at the scenes of terrorist acts in Iraq. Go check this out: The Obsidian Order [hat-tip: Instapundit] today offers an in-depth look at photos from one such scene. The conclusion:

The key and blindingly obvious point: there are at least three photojournalists from different outfits there exactly at the time it goes off! This is not a lucky coincidence. The pictures are clearly taken less than a minute after the original explosion and less than a minute apart. Also: all of the photographers are stringers, not regular staff photographers.

Interpretation: One, this was staged, the particulars of the bomb ensure it will be ineffective and safe from the distance from which it was photographed, but visually spectacular. The people running are most likely also staged. Two, the reporters were invited to see it. Three, they knew it was staged.

One of the comments on the site says:

Fox news had the sequence on the TV tonight. FNC said the Iraq police had shot up the car and stopped it -- the car caught fire -- then apparently a bomb inside went off. When the camera pulled back, the police with their guns raised were in the near filed framing -- as if they had been shooting at the car.

So I am not sure what your point is. Looked to me like the Iraqi police got their man before he could reach the school. FNC said a school was the target, not that it was hit by the explosion.

Ah ha! There we have it! The reason the pictures look funny is because the Iraqi security forces killed the attacker before he could properly position his vehicle and the vehicle then sympathetically detonated. But wait! This is good news right? Iraqi security forces disrupted an attack. Then why does the Reuters caption under each photo read thus:

An Iraqi boy runs past a car just as it explodes in front of al-Nahdha High School which was scheduled to be used as a voting centre in Baghdad, January 28, 2005. Hours earlier in the same area in southern Baghdad, a car bomb exploded next to a police station, killing four Iraqi civilians, police said. REUTERS/Ali Jasim

Not only does Reuters refuse to acknowledge the success of Iraqi security forces in every single caption, but they instead mention a completely different bombing that was successful in killing innocents.

This is truly amazing! And they spit on us lowly bloggers! Obsidian Order rightly asks, who are these photographers and what are their motives? We must ask the same about the caption-writers.

Another chink in the wire service armor falls away.

Written by Chester at 11:11 PM | Link | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

The Shadow of Karbala

[MAJOR CONTENT ANNOUNCEMENT: Steven Vincent, the author of "In the Red Zone," has agreed to do some guest-blogging this weekend as the Iraqi elections draw near. See his own blog here. And look for his book linked in the sidebar! The below piece is his, though it says "posted by Chester."]
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Two more days until Iraqi elections, the voting’s already begun in Australia, and, of course, the disloyal opposition is registering their presence, as well.

Meanwhile, you have to admire a people with the ability to alarm kings, sultans, terrorists, military officers, newspaper columnists, CIA officials and State Department panjandrums, not to mention thousands of citizens who once supped at the table of their worst enemy. I’m talking, of course, about Iraq’s Shia population.

Focused as we are on the spread of democracy through the region, we are less attuned to what may be the true revolution in this election. Numbering some 150 million out of Islam’s 1.2 billion adherents, the Shia have always suffered minority status in the Muslim ummah. Only in Iran and tiny Azerbaijan do a Shia majority rule their nation. But now, thanks to American military might and their own astonishing discipline and maturity, the Party of Ali is poised on the brink of achieving what they discarded eight decades ago in their revolt against British mandatory rule: political control of Iraq, the heart of the Muslim Middle East.

And their neighbors are afraid. Along with other observers, I’ve noted earlier ("Our Man in Waziristan") that Sunday’s elections will create a “Shia crescent” running from Lebanon into Syria (where Bashar Assad’s minority Alawite sect is an off-shoot of Shi’ism), Iraq, Iran and then hooking around to Bahrain, which lies adjacent to Saudi Arabia—where two million more Shia sit atop the Wahhabi kingdom’s richest oil fields.

This fear of rising Shia power lies behind many of the negative comments we read about the upcoming Iraqi elections. For example, on December 8, King Abdullah of Sunni-dominated Jordan warned that a Shia victory in Iraq would “open us to a whole new set of problems” that may destabilize the (Sunni) Middle East, including (Sunni-Wahhabi) Saudi Arabia. Reporting yesterday, Soraya Nelson and Huda Ahmed of the Knight-Ridder News Service quoted a retired Jordanian (Sunni) general “summing up the view of many critics” that the Iraqi elections are “mission impossible…without the acquiescence of the Sunnis.”

And here’s (Sunni) Qatari academic and political analyst Mohammad al-Misfer, quoted on Wednesday by Agence France Press:

[Sunni-dominated Gulf regimes] will not be in a stable situation if the Iraqi elections produce a Shiite leadership, because many Shiites in the region will no longer accept to be subordinate [to the Sunnis] after they see fellow Shiites in control in Iraq in addition to Iran. (my emphasis)

In (Sunni) Egypt, Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif warns that Iraq could plunge into a civil war, while former foreign minister Ahmed Maher cast doubts cast doubts on the real motives for the elections:

What is suspicious is the insistence of the American and Iraqi authorities to hold the elections within the timescale. This arouses fear and doubt over the real intentions of the supporters of the vote. Elections which…impose the domination of the majority, some of whom are bent on vengeance, could have destructive consequences that extend throughout the region.

These fears are not confined to the Muslim world, but exist in Washington, as well. As Fouad Ajami wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece on Wednesday,

The power of the Arabist view lingers in the State Department and in the ranks of the CIA, which retain a basic sympathy for the Sunni order.

We see these sympathies in the CIA’s support for Ayad Allawi, who—not to overlook the incredible bravery of the man (Shia-born, we should note)—halted the de-Baathification program in Iraq and attempted to bring Baathists into the government, resulting, some argue, in creating a network of insurgent spies and informers within the interim administration. Nor should we overlook ex-CIA analyst Michael Scheurer’s offensive near-idolization of Osama bin Laden (“The Trouble With Hubris”), who seems to be positioning himself as the Sunni-Wahabbi standard-bearer against renascent Shiism.

The State Department also seems to exhibit signs of Shia-phobia. As an observer in a neo-conservative Washington think-tank recently told me, “They want nothing to do with religion—they don’t get, they don’t like to touch it.” After all, it was a Shia theocracy in Iran that burned the diplomatic and foreign intelligence services during the 1979 Khomeini revolution.

Why is this important? Because the news we receive about Iraq and, in particular, the upcoming elections, passes through many filters, not least of which is the difficult-to-understand Shia-Sunni split. Officials in both the Middle East and Washington have their allegiances and biases, which they convey, sometimes unconsciously, to reporters, who in turn pass them to us, often themselves unaware. But they exist, and they are important. Ghosts from the Battle of Karbala, fought 14 centuries ago in Iraq, reach to the halls of Washington, the front pages of our daily newspapers, and the television screens of our homes.

Written by Chester at 8:11 AM | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Print Article

January 27, 2005

Bloggers vs. the Mainstream? Not quite . . .

Monday's San Jose Mercury News carried an interesting article by Frank Bajak about the relationship between bloggers and the established press and news outlets.

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - The managing editor of The New York Times threw down the gauntlet as she stared across a big O-shaped table at the prophets of blogging.

Did they have any idea, asked Jill Abramson, what it cost her newspaper to maintain its Baghdad bureau last year?

The unspoken subtext was clear: How can you possibly believe you can toss a laptop into a backpack, head for Iraq's Sunni Triangle and pretend to even come close to telling it like it is?

For that you need a bulwark of experience, credibility and financial, medical, legal and logistical support. Not to mention a staff of savvy locals. And that cost Abramson's paper a million dollars last year, she said.

Aside from eliciting questions about the return on investment for the New York Times' vast logistical apparatus, (Did John Steinbeck possess such support when he accompanied allied troops across North Africa and wrote "There Once Was a War"?) Ms. Abramson is largely missing the point. In fact there are several problems here. Let's look a little closer.

How is news created? Perhaps in three or so ways?

1. An event occurs. A journalist is dispatched to write, or take pictures, or record it. Often, these are spontaneous events. Just as often they are carefully scripted events meant for journalistic consumption.

2. A corporation, government agency, civic group, thinktank, or some other organization releases a study in a press release. This is then poured over by journalists and their editors to examine how best to write about it. The resulting product is offered to the public.

3. A journalist attempts to uncover what is really going on in a given locale, subculture, or with a certain person of note or celebrity. This takes the form of interviews, investigative journalism, etc. Thus the phrases, "behind the scenes," "on the ground," "exclusive interview."

4. Often, the above three methods are mixed.

In all of the above mentioned methods, the news is viewed as a product. The raw material is the event, the interview, the document, the press release, the footage. These raw materials are then crafted into what is consumed as news.

The first big change that bloggers have brought to all of this is a relentless examination of the original documents -- events, interviews, press releases, footage, etc -- that was previously unavailable to the general public. The editorial role of the news producer is on the decline. This is why blogs are growing in popularity. No longer does the reader or viewer only get the small, refined bits of news raw material that is dished up in any given old-media outlet. Bloggers routinely link to those original pieces of raw material themselves and their readers are free to examine each in detail.

The vast majority of politics and war blogs, like this one, offer an opinion, not an original piece of raw news material. Every now and then, a blogger will find him or herself in the midst of an event, or scoring an interview, or traveling through a newsworthy place. When that happens, he adds to the overall amount of raw material available for the general public to weigh and judge. But for the most part, bloggers aren't offering original, fresh news pieces.

Instead, a blogger is his own editor, and replicates the jobs of those who manage the content at the New York Times. And blogging is open to anyone. Plenty of blogs are authored by those who have more than established their bona fides in print journalism. The Becker-Posner blog is one example. The Victor Hanson papers is another. Kevin Sites not only shot footage in Fallujah, but also authored a blog while in Iraq.

The second big change that blogging brings to the media is really the kicker: the instant feedback mechanism. Even if some blogger found himself at the site of, say, a car-bombing in Iraq, or a political revolution in Ukraine, if he covered it in a way that did not ring true with others, they are usually welcome to comment on his site. Moreover, depending on the extent of their disagreement, they are free to set up a rival site and write their own interpretations of events there. This is true for anyone. Someone who takes issue with the majority of opinion here is welcome to comment (though please stay on topic and don't use profanity) or to set up, say, www.chesterhasnoclue.com. The corrections and feedback are instant. But not to dwell solely on corrections: the most enjoyable part of blogs is their conversation-like tone. In some blogs, regular readers will even have very robust discussions within the comments section -- sort of like sitting around a table with a vast number who share the same interests, though certainly not the same points of view.

The New York Times has no such feedback mechanism. Its editorials are strangely absent of authorship -- who even to respond to? who to email? Only the Times chooses which letters to the editor to publish. Yet despite all this, it claims objectivity. Objectivity is only worth something if you rely on the polished, refined, news-as-a-product that is the output of the established press -- and if you only rely on one outlet. If you want everything -- the good, the bad, the ugly, the contradictory, the confusing, the outtakes, and the raw materials -- you turn to a blog, you probably turn to several, and you know that you are seeing life as it is, not as it is polished up to be in Manhattan.

Having said all that, Mrs. Abramson appears equally wrong about the logistics required to produce journalism. Consider Robert Kaplan, who started as a travel writer, and has authored in-depth works on the future of the world, based on his many travels. He will admit that writing such work certainly requires a patron of some kind -- but he is also on the record as saying that when he travels to a place, he often does so with nothing more than the clothes he's wearing, and a backpack with a book or two a