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February 17, 2005

US Increases Military Pressure on Syria

The Middle East Newswire reports that

the White House has endorsed a plan that would grant U.S. troops the right of pursuit of Iraqi insurgents into Syria. They said the plan also included greater efforts along the Iraqi-Syrian border to block the flow of insurgents and weapons into Iraq.

"We will continue to make it clear to both Syria and Iran that meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq is not in their interests," Bush said.

The plan does not call for an invasion or attack on Syria, officials said. Instead, the plan stipulated the deployment of additional air and ground assets meant to detect and strike infiltrators from Syria. They said the policy would allow U.S. troops to shoot suspected infiltrators, even while they were on Syrian territory.

This move has been in the works for some time. Last month we discussed various options for Syria (here, here, and here) and noted that some were pushing for incursions into Syrian territory. Looks like a less aggressive option was chosen, which includes allowing US fires to cross into Syrian territory, though not troops (or will they in small numbers . . .).

US Moves
1. Diplomatic pressure on Syria ongoing for months.
2. Recall US ambassador in wake of bombing in Lebanon.
3. Announce more aggressive defense posture vs. Syria-based enemies in Iraq.

Syria Moves
1. Kill former PM of Lebanon.
2. Make a defense pact with Iran.

The US announcement shows that the US is not willing to cede the initiative in its overall diplomatic and military judo-match against Syria.

What next? What countermoves might Syria attempt, and what further initiatives might the US begin?

One thing is certain: while it may seem that Syria was on the back-burner in the White House for a while -- and this may only be a perception, as diplomacy is not always visible -- it and Iran are now clearly in the front of the President's field of vision.

Posted by Chester at February 17, 2005 9:53 PM

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