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April 27, 2005
Iran: The Blogosphere Option?
Nearly every post here discussing Iran has resulted in the following consensus: the US has few good options for dealing with the situation. [See The Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program, Part V (with links to the other four, back on the ole blogger site), and more recently, Post-show thoughts for Fox's "Iran: The Nuclear Threat"]
So, looking for some more options that we hadn't really discussed yet, I turned to the resident members of the State Department Republican Underground: Dr. Demarche and George Smiley, over at The Daily Demarche. My question to them was:
Since you are members of the DoS underground, I thought I'd ask for your thoughts on US diplomatic options for dealing with Iran. I've written a post today at Adventures dealing with military options and would like to examine the full spectrum.Here's what they said:What do you think?
George Smiley:
Regarding the situation in Iran. I don't have any real experience in Iranian affairs (consider this a disclaimer so that I can't be accused of revealing classified). But I can say that the situation wrt Iran is basically like being stuck in between several rocks and hard places. The most robust diplomatic solution, referring Iran to the UNSC, is still a relatively feckless one. Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if that's where the whole case winds up, but by then it may be too late. Containing Iran like we tried to do to Saddam won't work.and Dr. Demarche:One thing we can do is crack down, via initiatives like the Proliferation Security Initiative, on the peripheral aspects of the weapons program -- keep them from getting more materiel, etc. Covert operations could play a part in removing some of the key components from the picture (please note, this is my personal opinion, I have no special knowledge in this case). I would personally consider a combination of the above mentioned things the best option, because as you noted in your post, none of the military options are particularly appealing.
I think that there is a real possibility that we could see the first digital coup in Iran- with a massive majority of the population under thirty and the huge amount of Internet activity in Iran IMO we should be working to bring about change through the hopes and demands of the people.Hmmm. So the diplomatic options are thin as well. Looks like they are both leaning toward Step One in Chester's Goldplated All-Purpose Iran Plan:
Foment revolution in Iran; support protests and publicize the same; support anti-regime organizations, if possible, train them, and if possible, carve out a small portion of the country to use as a safe haven while doing so. If you can't, then build a few camps in Iraq. When the revolution happens, it will have an Iranian face. Publicity is key. There is a lot about protests in Iran in one-off press sources. These need to be featured in mainstream news outlets, Lebanon-style. Iran needs to have a Ukraine, or Lebanon moment. Like the guy standing in front of the tanks in Tiananmen, but before the ensuing slaughter. Do all you can to support dissidents, dissent, protests, etc. We here in the blogosphere are happy to help anytime.Looks like Wretchard has come to some similar conclusions about the military possibilities over at Belmont Club:
It is reasonable to speculate that while the US will improve its capability to attack directly, it is really deployed to confront the Iranian regime indirectly. US organizing efforts in Kurdistan, Afghanistan and in Central Asia have opened clandestine highways into Iran . . .Note Dr. Demarche's phrase "digital coup." Iran is a place with a high density of computer-literate bloggers. The Iranian blogs entry on Wikipedia states that Iranian web logs account for some "65,000 out of an estimated 2,000,000" (no date given) and points out that Persian is the fourth most used language on the internet . . .When Richard Perle testified before House Armed Services Committe in April 2005 he summed up what he had learned from the Iraq campaign. None of his regrets had to do with military shortcomings. The deficiencies in the American campaign were in the political sphere. He spoke of the need to create indigenous groups sympathetic to democratic aims before taking on a tyranny and of involving them immediately in the governance of the country . . .
Although Perle was ostensibly discussing the Iraqi campaign, his reflections were not made in the context of a disinterested academic inquiry into past events but as lessons meant to be applied to future campaigns; i.e. Iran. This suggests that long before the US attempts a direct assault on the Iranian regime it will probably attempt to achieve each of the three things Perle mentioned: a relationship with a partner Iranian group; the development of a popular desire to overthrow the Mullahs; and a commanding intelligence picture . . .
So if there is to be some sort of digital coup in Iran, the blogosphere will play a big part.
What role might we bloggers here in the US play? How can we help?
Putting my old staff officer thinking cap back on, here's some thoughts:
1. If a popular protest of large proportions begins in Iran, the we sympathetic bloggers must do all we can to draw attention to it. Experience shows that when we concentrate our energies, we can either get the mainstream press to look closely at something they otherwise would have skipped, or can alert US readers to the size and scope of major events abroad. We can do some pretty impressive things if we focus our collective attention somewhere.
2. The government of Iran seems to me to be in a much stronger position than that of Syria in Lebanon, or even the outgoing regime in Ukraine. Iran seems much more likely to crush any incipient rebellion -- even a popular, peaceful movement. This week alone, Iran has cut off internet service in areas with protests.
3. The clock is ticking: seems like the upcoming elections on June 17th could be the big moment.
Conclusion: If we, being the blogosphere, are going to have any blogging role in supporting dissidents, protests, and rebellion in Iran, then we need to lay some groundwork now to build some communication channels that will come in handy later. Some ideas:
US-Iranian partner bloggers: Sort of a pen-pal program for bloggers in the US and in Iran. Establishes a communication link. Casual interaction like this could be very useful at building speedy communications over a period of time.
Redundancy in communications links: if the government is going to shut down ISPs, we need some workarounds to get the stories out. Otherwise, the lights will be out here in the blogosphere, and we'll all be prisoners to whatever the networks and NPR toss up there. What about:
-phone cards so folks can call in stories from land lines in Iran? Would the government shut all of those down too?
-setting up networks of bloggers in neighboring countries (Iraq? Afghanistan? the Gulf States? who could receive phone calls from Iranians, then turn their reports into blog posts?
-old school: HAM radio operators?
-if we really want to get a little crazy, sat phones? this is not only expensive, but hard to choose who to get them to, and probably risky for the Iranians to have them . . .
I'm trying to be creative. There's always the old standbys: raising money, and writing letters/emails.
Of course, I'm ignoring language barriers for the moment. And we certainly wouldn't want to do anything that would cause Iranian bloggers to get into hot water. Iran already likes to imprison its bloggers.
I'm spitballing here, folks. What do you think?
I'm notifying my normal list of this post, but I've especially asked for comments from Publius, Regime Change Iran, Chrenkoff, and if it's not too much trouble for the busy folks there, Spirit of America.
But I'd really like ideas from anyone out there. Please comment. We're in full brainstorming mode here at TAOC.
UPDATE: See this NRO article, with some ideas from Michael Ledeen:
Michael Ledeen — one of those wonky "neocons" from the American Enterprise Institute (and a regular NRO-er) — has a wish list for Iran, but it isn't a massive army going invading the country or the dangerous pacifism of Armitage, either.If this country can raise $1bn in private funds for tsunami relief, I'll bet we can raise enough for a strike fund and some laptops.Ledeen wants serious "criticism of their regime from our leaders." Americans should know the names of the Iranian dissidents. Ledeen encourages "calls for the release of political prisoners — by name." America can help the reform movement in Iran, he says, through "broadcasts, both from official and private radios and televisions, explaining the basic methods of non-violent conflict; financial support to build a strike fund for workers, teachers and students."
"Those are the minimum things," Ledeen underscores. "Plus get them good communications devices, servers, laptops, cell phones, etc." In other words, they need a rhetorical boost from the leader of the free world, and they need some tools.
Posted by Chester at April 27, 2005 10:57 PM
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