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September 7, 2005
Imagining the Insanely Possible
Gerard Van der Leun's post on a nuclear blast in the US spurs a look at popular perceptions of nuclear holocausts, as conceived during the Cold War. What lessons might be drawn for today?
After reviewing the film The Day After, and re-reading the book Alas, Babylon, it becomes clear that the glaring assumption of these apocalyptic tales is the utter stupidity of any party so foolish to believe anything positive could come from a nuclear exchange, or a nuclear blast. Only incredible stupidity, or accident, or a misreading of intentions, could result in a nuclear exchange, for the aftermath would render all imputed political or territorial gains completely meaningless. This meme -- of recklessness or mistake as the only possible precursor to nuclear war -- raises itself time and time and time again in Cold War nuclear literature.
Alas, Babylon is the 1959 classic of a small fictional town in Florida, Fort Repose, and how its residents survive a nuclear holocaust that has left the entire nation decimated. The protagonist is Randy Bragg, a local Korean war vet who has spent his time since knocking about, trying to figure out what to do with his life. His brother is Colonel Mark Bragg, a senior intelligence officer at the Strategic Air Command in Nebraska. One day Mark meets Randy at a nearby airfield and explains his theory that the Russians believe the timing is right for a first strike. He gives Randy a check for $5000 and sends his wife and children to stay with Randy. Then he returns to his post.
The actual war begins with a mistake in the Mediterranean:
Quite often, the flood of history is undammed or diverted by the character and actions of one man. In this case the man was not an official in Washington, of the Admiral commanding Task Group 6.7, or even the Captain, or Air Group Commander of Saratoga. The man was Ensign James Cobb, nicknamed Peewee, the youngest and smallest pilot in Fighter Squadron 44 . . .Peewee disobeys regulations and chases a Russian observation plane into Syrian airspace and fires a Sidewinder missile at it, which instead heads for the industrial complex at the port of Latakia, beginning a chain reaction which spreads throughout the port. It is an accidental act of war and it is just enough to start the Russians on their path of nuclear annihilation. . . Thus the mistake/stupidity meme is evident.
In The Day After, an ABC TV movie broadcast in 1983, a nuclear exchange between the USSR and the US takes place after an exchange of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe first. The film builds very slowly to this crescendo and the airbursts over American cities happen about an hour in. It is rumored that while watching this part of the film, President Reagan wept. After his screening, he sent suggestions for editing the film to the director. I must admit that the sight of mushroom clouds over Lawrence, Kansas is downright unnerving. For 1983, the special effects are very good. ABC even set up toll free hotlines after the film's airing for viewers who were deeply disturbed by the film.
The presumptions of the insanity of nuclear war that permeate the film are evident both in quotes within it, and in the public reaction afterward. As Jason Robards' character, Dr. Russell Oakes, is about to go into surgery after the blast, in a makeshift hospital, he has this exchange with another doctor:
Dr. Russell Oakes: I wonder who was spared? I wonder if New York, Paris, Moscow... are just like Kansas City now?This theme rears its head again in the discussion after the movie was shown on TV. William Buckley debates Carl Sagan, and the scene is described thus:Dr. Landowska: There is a rumor that they are evacuating Moscow. There are people even leaving Kansas City because of the missile base. Now I ask you: To where does one go from Kansas City? The Yukon? Tahiti? We are not talking about Hiroshima anymore. Hiroshima was... was peanuts!
Dr. Russell Oakes: What's going on? Do you have any idea what's going on in this world?
Dr. Landowska: Yeah. Stupidity... has a habit of getting its way.
Immediately after the film's original broadcast, it was followed by a special news program, featuring a live discussion between scientist Dr. Carl Sagan (who opposed the use of nuclear weapons) and Conservative writer William F. Buckley Jr. (who promoted the concept of "nuclear deterrence"). It was during this heated discussion, aired live on network television, where Dr. Sagan introduced the world to the concept of "nuclear winter" and made his famous analogy, equating the nuclear arms race with "two men standing waist deep in gasoline; one with three matches, the other with five".Here again the notion that only insane men would ever resort to the use of nuclear weapons is manifest again.
These ideas are so prevalent in Cold War nuclear texts that they result in a corollary: since only insane individuals would launch a nuclear war, and the consequences for humanity would be so dire . . . only an inhuman intelligence would consider nuclear war as a policy option. Thus we have movies like WarGames, in which a young Matthew Broderick convinces NORAD's computer that he is launching missiles at it, and prompting a response. And of course, The Terminator series, in which one of the first decisions of self-realizing artificial computer intelligence is the nuclear extermination of the human race.
Again and again these ideas permeate our popular culture. In the film version of Arthur C. Clarke's 2010, when Jupiter implodes on itself and becomes a dwarf star, the Soviet premier and the American president both look up at the sky and decide the back down from a burgeoning confrontation. After all, only madness would lead to a nuclear catastrophe.
The effects of these assumptions and mentalities on diplomacy in our current war are not easy to miss. In scenarios of mutually assured destruction, the idea that stupidity and recklessness will lead to catastrophe can easily morph into the notion that all actions are risks which should not be taken -- thus the very nature of the "Cold" war itself, cold only because it was too risky to be "hot." Diplomacy, careful hiding of one's moves, and silent games of cat and mouse, whether by spies or nuclear submarines, become the norm.
Yet does this way of conceiving of a mortal enemy hold any sway at all vis a vis Al Qaeda? Is it proper to assume that only the insane, or the inhumane, would willingly risk a nuclear war with the United States? Sadly, from Al Qaeda's own statements, we know that they possess the desire, and our efforts therefore are exerted in preventing them from attaining the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon in the US.
How different now to conceive of circumstances in which a given party might willingly and gladly use a nuclear weapon – it inverts the tables somewhat from avoidance and accident to those of prevention, pre-emption, and fierce acts of non-proliferation. Deterrence ceases to be effective.
Even though we know these things -- that somewhere, whether in tthe unruled regions of Pakistan, or elsewhere, someone right now is plotting mayhem of which we can not imagine -- one wonders how much the stupidity/insanity/mistake memes of the Cold War affect our preparations and national security imaginations at the highest levels . . .
UPDATE: Of course, the events leading to a nuclear holocaust are only the first parts of these texts. The rest are about the efforts of the survivors to save themselves. In the aftermath of Katrina in the US, many have begun thinking on these issues. One interesting resource I discovered is SurvivalBlog.com.
Posted by Chester at September 7, 2005 9:24 PM
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Posted by: Chester at September 8, 2005 6:52 AM
You raise a frightening point. The fear of mutually assured destruction kept the use of nuclear weapons at bay during the Cold War. Such fear does not exist in the minds (sane or otherwise) of Al Qaeda terrorists. They believe such an attack will bring on the apocalypse in which Allah will destroy the infidel and protect the faithful.
Clearly, the only strategy in dealing with such a threat is a vigorously aggressive & premeptive offence.
Posted by: Kenneth at September 8, 2005 10:10 AM
You raise an interesting point. But I think that there is another danger left over from the Cold War. We have been conditioned to anticipate that the word after "nuclear" must always be "holocaust". Thus, we simply shut down mentally when we hear the word "nuclear". I see two problems here:
1. When we think about a nuclear attack on the US, we tend to think that it means the end of all life on the planet. We fail to see the difference between thousands of H-bombs with yields in the tens of megatons (total yield 10^10 tons of TNT) and one or a few (lets say even 10) A-bombs with yields in the tens of kilotons (total yield 10^5 tons of TNT). We seem to fail to grasp that a difference of 5 orders of magnitude (100,000) might lead to a drastically different outcome.
I had posted a comment here before saying that I believe that the US could survive an attack of 100 A-bombs. It would certainly be extremely ugly, but we'd be able to survive it and still be able to project a significant military response afterwards (one that should be feared by our enemies). 100 A-bombs is a total yield of 10^7 tons of TNT which is about the same as a single H-bomb and 1000 times smaller than the nuclear holocaust scenerios we were faced with during the Cold War. (I believe that the total explosive destructive effect of 100 A-bombs would greatly exceed the explosive destructive effect of a single H-bomb due to the way the math works, but the total effect must still be qualitatively different than the effect of 1000 H-bombs). I was surprised that a statement here that we could survive 100 A-bombs was dismissed as nonsense. It's as if we are already mentally prepared to wave the white flag if a terrorist were to manage to attack us with a nuclear weapon. I expect that the terrorists know this and are immeasurably encouraged by it...
But the most significant problem that I see related to this first point is that we aren't prepared for a nuclear attack. It's as if we've decided that in the event of a nuclear attack, we'd all die anyway; so what's the point of preparedness? I see this as extreme folly. We can see with hurricane Katrina the vital importance of preparedness. Given the threat of nuclear attack, we should be putting a sincere effort into nuclear preparedness too.
2. I think that this automatic connection of "holocaust" with "nuclear" has also been a problem for us adopting a great deal more nuclear power to greatly reduce our reliance on fossil fuel. To my simple mind, nuclear power is the only option that can produce great quantities of power day or night, rain or shine. But it seems that many people subconciously associate "holocaust" with nuclear power.
We need to get over this irrational fear of radioactivity so that we can both prepare for it as well as use it rationally and safely for our benefit.
We also need to get over our irrational views about the yields of nuclear weapons. Hurricane Katrina had the energy of hundreds, if not thousands, of H-bombs (but without the radioactivity). Yet it is still a finite amount of energy producing a finite amount of damage that I think everybody would agree that this nation will survive.
But if I suggest that we could survive 100 A-bombs, with a total energy several orders of magnitude less than hurricane Katrina, why is it that we think that our country would not survive? Certainly the radioactivity associated with a nuclear attack would add to the damage done. But it is still a finite amount of radioactivity and a finite amount of damage.
I say that we can survive! And we should prepare!
So while I agree with Kenneth that we should be vigorously aggressive and use preemptive offense against the threat of nuclear attack, I disagree that these are our "only strategies".
Posted by: mtnyogi at September 8, 2005 12:54 PM
Mtnyogi -- Yes, I remember your earlier comment which I dismissed because I think that a mass nuclear attack could easily destroy the US. Sure, there would be survivors in various parts of the country, but our role in the world, and even possibly our government's ability to govern at home, would be wiped out.
Now that you clarify a bit, I find myself wholeheartedly in agreement with you: preparing our people, minds, infrastructures to survive after an attack should be a priority. This means decentralization, redundancy, independence from various grid systems, and as far as mindsets go, something similar to that which animated our earliest forebears, who saw the US as a wild land to be tamed by Protestant Christianity. With all those precautions, we might survive even 100 small yield weapons with some semblance of what we had before, though it would be dramatically different. But if an enemy is smart in using such an arsenal -- even 10, not 100 -- he might succeed in frustrating even the robust preparations that we outline. Ultimately, they are all defensive in nature, and without the types of actions advocated by Kenneth -- or Kenneth's actions without these -- either method will be for naught.
Great thoughts and thanks for participating.
Posted by: Chester at September 8, 2005 1:07 PM
I look at the question from a slightly different perspective. I don't see America as a place so much but rather as an idea. The Idea that created America in this place is already immortal. Even if the place is destroyed, the idea will live on in the many places it has been transplanted. France, Poland, Japan, S. Korea, etc. The Sucess of the American System is due to the Ideas put forth in our Constitution, not the dirt that the country exists on. Our dirt is pretty much the same as everybody else's dirt.
I'm not saying we shouldn't fight for both our ideas and our dirt, but rather it is to late for our enemy to destroy us. Our Enemy is trying to perform CPR on an 8th centry idea that was DOA 200 years ago. In that respect they cannot win. But they cannot lose either, since any change will be an improvement for them. That is why we are fighting. Wars start because BOTH sides feel they can win. Sometimes Both sides do win. That depends on the objectives of the two sides.
Japan started WW2 with the objective of replacing European (western) influence in Asia with their own. They lost the war, but achieved their goal.
The only western influence left on the Pacific Rim is American, and that is waning. If Japan hadn't fought WW2, they would be just one more turd world nation today. So did they really lose? Yes, but they gained more thru that loss then if they had won.
The Arabs are in the same basic position. They are forcing the USA to modernize the ME. Either that or kill them, which might just be an improvement, or at least they act as if they think it will be an improvement.
Posted by: Stehpinkeln at September 9, 2005 12:13 AM
You raise an excellent point, Stehpinkeln -- no doubt because you are not in North America (are you?)
Greece and Rome are long gone, but those traditions have endured in one form or another. Perhaps the same would hold true of the US. Though its exact nature seems to me completely unique. A nation of immigrants! Where else? Australia? Patton used to tell his men that Americans were naturally agressive because we all come from immigrant stock, and it takes guts to uproot yourself and move thousands of miles to seek a better life . . .
Will that Idea live on? Let's hope it doesn't take a blast for us to find out.
Posted by: Chester at September 9, 2005 12:32 AM
Have a look sometime at two other books, "Warday" by Strieber and Kunetka. The book suffers from a rather leftist slant (war starts because the US begins to deploy BMD, but still a good book, and well illustrates what a catastrophe even a "limited" nuclear conflict would have been. Four or five pages in the middle of the book describing the decision to launch the US retaliatory strike are some of the most chilling stuff I've ever read.
Similarly, "Free Flight" by Douglas Terman is an absolutely chilling picture of the US and Canada after a nuclear exchange that the US "loses" complete with pro-Soviet Vichy-France style collaborators and grinding poverty. The first 10 or so pages take place in the Soviet command bunker where the decision to lanuch the war is made (Andropov is Soviet boss).
Posted by: El Jefe Maximo at September 9, 2005 10:18 AM
Muslim fanatics are just like all the other fanatics throughout history. They raise themselves above their own ideals and laws, but condemn those who do not submit to those ideals. Fanaticism is an ideology, a cult- and I say that because I have been there, I have seen it- it is not a physical thing that can be fought with guns and bombs. If anything, guns and bombs is what fuels it, justifies their actions to them, and gives them an excuse. It is what they use to brainwash.
If Americans would realize the fascim going on in their own backyards, the theft of their savings by the Ferderal Reserve and the coming collapse of the dollar, the indoctrination of their children at school(who, btw, FEMA may relocate in the event of an emergency to any secret facility they wish, without allowing access by their parents or making public their whereabout), the righs they are throwing away in exchange for an ellusive idea of "safety", then they would be a little more hesitant about imposing "democracy" on the rest of the world (I thought it was supposed to be bottom-up, not top down?). If this is what democracy is, no one needs it and very few want it.
Democracy unfortunately is an ideal that Americans have taken for granted and have been throwing away bit by bit for almost 50 years. It died in Novemeber 2000. No empire has survived its own success; they all eventually collapse from the greed, laziness, and arrogance that comes with their success. We are no different. But, Americans are more scared of a few dozen religious fanatics than the whole-sale sellout of American land to foreign companies; the loss of jobs to illegal immigrants, shifting jobs overseas, and nepotism and cronyism. Our government is no longer transparent and it is no longer held accountable to the people. Our elections are a joke yet we worry about election fraud in the Middle East. We are on a hell-bound train when it comes to human rights abuses yet we claim that we are more civilized.
Americans need to rally together- and I don't mean the mob-mentality, Nazi-ish flag waving that happened after 9-11- and fight to protect what is really American and what is our Constitution. We are losing the right to protest, we are losing the right to bear arms, our press is being censored (yes, STERILIZATION constitutes censorship). Insurance companies will be requiring auto manufacturers to put GPS systems in new cars. Your library records can be confiscated, your phone can be tapped, you can be jailed in solitary confinement without knowing what the charges are and without access to a lawyer. Your children can be taked from you and placed in foster care with sexual predators.
Soon you will be photographed as much as those people in London do- at least 300 times a day. Everything about you is being put in one big government database called TIA (don't be naive not to think it isn't YOU- just by changing the name from "Total" to "Terror" Information Awareness doesn't mean crap.) Everywhere you go, everyone you talk to, everything you watch on TV, read on the internet or in books- it can all be watched. Private real estate development firms can take your home. The air you breathe, the water you drink, the food you eat are all POISON. When China, which has aligned the renmibi with the Malaysian government who is coordinating the return on the Islamic gold dinar, dumps $200B and the banks take your house to pay for it, when OPEC demands oil for gold, the entire system will collapse.
Forget about homesteading it; so many crops now are genetically modified AND COMPANIES OWN THE PATENT RIGHTS ON THEM, they can literally choose who they pick to sell to. Germ warfare? The US wrote the textbook. If they don't like you, you don't get the vaccine in an emergency. Yet we are worried about a bunch of religious fanatic freaks who may "live among us"- freaks whose sole purpose is to make sure they don't become like us. Hell, even I don't like what has become of us. We should give the Iraqis our Constitution. It seems we don't use it anymore.
Posted by: Shellie at September 9, 2005 9:07 PM

