I'm pretty ignorant about Syria -- but I thought Assad was Alawite. Is that a branch of Shia?

Also, do you know what the rough brakdown is of Sunni/Shia in Syria?

I know ethnicity is also a factor, e.g. Druze.

For an idea so wrapped up in diplomatic Bovine Blather as this one to be the WAY of the U S of A is either sheer brilliance or a LEAK spelled large. But all in all not a bad idea.

I have NO FAITH in any diplomat. They always screw up. That said, the only thing that will stop Hizbollah is the DEATH of each Terrorist, so this is a way to waste time until more terrorists can be exterminated.

In that respect, it is a "BRILLIANT time waster" that may take weeks. 6 or 8 weeks, if we are lucky.

Baron,
Wikipedia's Syria entry tells that the population is divided thus:
10% - Christian
70% - Sunni
20% - other Muslim sects, including Alawites, Druze, and Shia

The "Alawite" entry does not state so explicitly, but I believe Alawites are something more akin to Shi'ites than Sunnis, based on their reverence for Mohammed's son-in-law Ali. The Sunnis have no such Messianism that I know of.

Assad is in fact an Alawite.

Quick thought: I wonder what the psychological impact of negotiating with a brilliant black female is for some of these thug leaders in the Middle East?

Quick thought: I wonder what the psychological impact of negotiating with a brilliant black female is for some of these thug leaders in the Middle East? I'm speaking of Condi of course. Interesting.

IIRC the Alawi sect of Shi'a Islam has about the same relationship with mainstream Shi'a Islam as Shi'a Islam itself has with Sunni Islam, i.e. many mainstream Shi'a Muslims consider the Alawites to be apostastes.

I think we should be cautious about conflating stated opposition to Hezbollah by Arab governments with opposition to Hezbollah on the part of Arab countries. Popular support for Hezbollah in those countries seems to be rising if anything. Check the pro-Hezbollah demonstrations all over the Arab world (including, of course, those in London).

Dave,

I'm willing to discount for the moment the love of Hezbollah in the Arab street. When did the rulers of these countries ever pay attention to their own streets? Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are most certainly not representative governments. I suspect they pay less attention to polling numbers than we do here.

Good point on the Alawites.

I agree with that, Chester. My point is that even authoritarian regimes are subject to political considerations and I don't think we should expect much from the Arab regimes other than verbal support. At the most.

I think the Alawite were the original Assassins from the middle ages.

I am always amazed at how important Arab street mobs are to diplomacy. Since it pretty clear that these mobs do not have our interest at heart, it is not clear why we should elevate their importance to achieving a result that is in our interest.

The mobs become part of the weakness strategy used by some Arab and Muslim countries to achive their objectives that they can not achieve by persuasion or reasoned argument. They are part of the back ground noise in Middle East now in much the same way the "victim" photos are used to play the "Oh, poor us," card. What really should be happening to stop this victimhood meme is the prosecution of Hezballah leadership for placing weapons chaces in civilian homes and using civilians as human shields in the hopes that they will become photo ops in their victimhood psywar campaign.

The chances that Syria will add anything positive to settling the issues involving Hezballah and Israel are remote. However, the London Telegraph is reporting that Syria is offering to provide the US with infor on all the al Qaeda agents in Lebanon. Perhaps they are willing to give up a few al Qaeda ops to save Hezballah. In my judgement, that is not a very good deal. If Syria wanted to be serious in solving this problem they would give up both al Qaeda and Hezballah. I think they are going to hang with the Iranians. I am not sure how much this is costing Iran, but it is probably not a small amount.

Self interest is the common thread here. The Syrians lost about 300 mill per annum when they were forced to stop looting Lebanon. Naturally they wanted to replace those funds. Iran was available. Syria had to do certain things to earn that money. Now the Arab big-3 is making an offer to replace Iran as the 'sugar daddy' for the Syrians.

Before anything can be done it must be figured out why Iran started this whole thingie off. One theory is to divert attention from their Nuclear Weapons program. Another is that Iran is trying to dominate the Islamic Agenda. Sort of like a hostile takeover. My theory is that it doesn't matter, the nut jobs in Tehran really truely believe that on Aug 22, 2006 the 12th Imam will crawl out of his well and use his god like powers to put the Muslims in control of the world. So when that doesn't happen, or if it does happen and the 12 Imam finds out that while he might be badassed, a 420 kiloton warhead is badassed also...

Regardless, we are approaching a nexus point and on the 23rd of August, things will change yet again. ALL the players will have to restart their Boyd cycle again. So whatever Condi acomplishes will have to be re-done in a month or so. Meanwhile what not let them kill each other?
We are all going to die anyway and in the case of Hezebollah, sooner is better.

Thanks for the info on Alawites, etc., everyone. That helps me understand things a little better...

Let's see where have I heard this before?
Give back the Golan Heights and peace and love shall flood the world!
Oh yes, It was last going to be Gaza.
So Israel pulls out of the Golan and soon Rockets will be shooting down hill at Israel from Golan and the whole shebang starts again.
Israel could give the whole country back and move to Nevada but the Islamics will still try to shoot missiles at them.
Islam is the enemy, treat it as such and destroy it.
NOW not when My grandson has to do it.

I am watching Condi diplomacy with great interest. Like you, Chester, I've been interested in how her position is regarded by men who have no regard for women, period. I am gushing with smug satisfaction that she is our Sec of State, and they have no choice but to be sullied by her presence and acknowledge--at the very least--the power of her position, and hopefully, her intelligence and competence.

Syria has no good options - at least not in the light of what they might do that might be in "their" - read Boy Assad's Crumbling Regime - interest.

Syria is a despotic police state run on the same script as Iraq, without the petrocapital that would have permitted it to become a threat beyond Syrians, Lebanese, and Israelis.

In mafiaese, they aren't a capo; maybe just made, maybe not, but surely no higher on the roster than a lieutenant. They facilitate the actions of real players.

In the past they were the cutout for Egypt and Saudi where money, arms, and personnel were sent into Palestinian areas. Now they do the same things, with the addition of being a pipeline into Iraq, for Tehran.

Assad runs things because no other Syrian gangster wants to occupy the bullseye - and there are levels upon levels of gangster fiefdoms in Damascus.

IDF kills Hezbollah. Lebanon's government, after negotiation with Rice, accepts NATO intervention and publicly rejects Hezbollah. Iran launches one missile aimed anywhere, and Damascus is going to be glowing before Iran's target is even determined. Tehran, Qom, and elsewhere to glow shortly afterward.

This is a shooting war. Israel has determined what its objectives are going to be and in spite of the best efforts of the Usual Suspects to the contrary, initiative is very much out of the hands of the terrorists or anyone else. Don't be too hasty in thinking that there will be any ceasefire anytime soon.

All interesting points. If boy Assad is a weak tyrant looking to keep his faction in power at any cost,look tough like daddy ( wait - thats a democritic party line - nevermind) and the Iranians are manuevering behind your back and your popularity is being eclipsed by a rival (Nashallrah) ..I think he will sell them out.

grumbler,

I wholeheartedly agree with you. The prevalence of the date of August 22nd in Iranian public statements MEANS SOMETHING.

What I don't know. But on the 22nd, the 12th imam will either crawl out of the well or he won't. If he does, well, we're in for it. I think this is unlikely though.

If he does not, well, the Iranians are going to have to have a lot of heart-to-hearts with each other to see what they did wrong. Maybe they weren't provocative enough? Maybe they didn't set the path for him well enough?

Or, if Ahmadinejad is speaking figuratively, then perhaps he intends a demonstration of power of some kind. A show of force somewhere or, God forbid, a weapons-test.

Whatever. He is staking a lot on something happening on that date and if he doesn't deliver . . . well, he'd better deliver.

The US is in an extremely reactive mode right now vis-a-vis Iran. I see no point in the immediate future, certainly not before the 22nd, in which we will regain the initiative, even if the Syrians are split through some miraculous bit of gladhanding.

Conveniently, Ahmadinejad has chosen a date that precedes our own political timetable of elections, which drives most of our strategic decisions.

T-minus 29 days til we know what happens next.

Baron, I agree we need to deal with Islam now. But it will at best be your son who deals with it, not your grandson. The clash of civilizations is on us and many are still burying their heads in the sand, ala Neville Chamberlain. "Peace in our time"? Sorry, it's too late for that.

There are eery parallels to the beginnings of WW2. Every time we gave Hitler more "lebensraum" (land), we thought it would appease him. No, it whetted his appetite. How about our current version of the Lend-Lease Act to resupply missiles to Israel that is being challenged by Arab groups in Detroit? Lend-Lease faced legal challenges by Nazi sympathizers in the US.

As an aside, I have become very worried at the prospects of Islamofascist terror cells in Detroit. Where are most of our military vehicles made? I hope security is tightened up.

Chester; glad to see ya mentioned Libya and Kahdafi. I stated in yesterday's post that he could be a key player in turning Syria. Assad knows he faces a Hobsons choice and Kahdafi may be able to explain the benefits of a westward turn.

Turning Syria will not be east but neither was spinning Egypt around in the '70s. And it would have great consequences in the ME futures markets.

But any turn must be complete. Syria must not only turn over a list of el Queda and Hezbullah types, they must also turn over any and all Iraqi resistance organizers and financiers.

Too often, these types of "house cleanings" are more of a way to dispose of any internal threats against the regime. Turn over your enemies with some doctored up evidence.

The Iranian August 22 deadline doesn't make sense. Projects aren't done until they are done, no matter what your schedule says. What if the bomb isn't quite ready to show off then? Alternately, if you already have a nuke, why wait to demonstrate it? A lot can happen in a month.
That said, the Iranians clearly believe something special will happen on the 22nd.

Is there a rough estimate on the number of rockets that Hezballah as fired? The news
reports that Hezballah have about 13,000 rockets of different types. With the number fired and the number of rocket caches that have been destroyed they should be out within a short time.
Also after a little research I found that Hezballah was divided into North, Central and Southern commands, the southern command has been mostly issolated by Israel with comms and access cut off, might the rockets be divided between the different commands so as to carry out operations. And i think the Central and Northern commanders may be inclined to hold onto their rockets rather than share them.

Sackett, I have many years of military experience, as do several other posters here and our ever so gracious host. There are thousands of reasons why 'military intelligence' is the number one example of an oxymoron. My favorite was McArthur's G-2 assuring him there were 'just a few hundred chinese in Korea' He was off by about half a million. Pretty close by military intelligence standards.
Nobody has the slightest idea how many Rockets Hezebollah has. I would bet Hezebollah doesn't, so how could the IDF, or anyone else?
Battle of the bulge? Pearl Harbor?
The only saving grace is our enemy isn't any better and might even be worse.
IIRC, the August 22 date is based on 'interpeting' certain sections of the Koran. Like the bible, the koran features a second coming, the rapture and other little bits of primative superstition.
Maybe you can't remember back that far, but around the year 1,000 everything was predicted to end, one of JC's assistants was going to swing by and pick up all the 'true believers' who would feel the rapture and get transported off to some place where they got fitted for wings and recieved harp lessons. The rest of us got to stay here and party. When it didn't happen everybody rational got a good laugh and went back to what ever they were doing. The nutjobs that believed that stuff took it pretty hard. They still haven't quite recovered. One of the reasons for the early crusades was since the Mulsims controlled the holy lands, God wasn't sending his chauffeur by to pick up the believers. The Pope, of course had other reasons, but the peasants and more importantly, the men-at-arms (miles) wanted to capture Jerusalem so they could get their wings and harp.
It is not inconcievable that ol' Amadamnutjobadeen is counting on the 12th being a no show so he can blame it on Israel and whip up a rightous Jihad among the bomb guidance units.
I think the well is in Qom. That is why we need to nuke the Well on the 21st of August. That way we can say we skragged the 12th's sorry fooking ass because the shittes have been such bad boys.
Sort of a Soviet warning shot. You know, when they hit the guy next to you....