I can't see any flaw in your logic. But why would Nasrallah or Syria admit defeat unless they had a compelling reason to? The clock is ticking for Israel. If not the clock of media opinion, then the clock of its own economy, which may not be able to sustain a mobilization for months on end.

The only answer I can imagine is that either Hezbollah or Syria are confronted with an existential defeat. So to a certain extent, the entire program for peace is limited by how quickly the IDF can bring Hezbollah to the point of defeat. At that point, presumably, they will be willing to sue for peace.

So it appears that Israel is taking a hands-off approach towards Syria for now...

But what happens if Hezbollah gets desperate? They have reportedly threatened to launch some 500 rockets on Tel Aviv... Bluster or real threat? And if they do actually manage to target even 100 rockets on Tel Aviv, how would this change the focus of Israel's current war plan?

My guess, and this is just speculation, is that such an attack, using what are clearly large Iranian "high technology" weapons, would completely expose Tehran's hand in all of this... And how far would Israel widen the conflict at that point?

It is going to be a lot more interesting before it is all over.

Just my $.02

DaveK

Another alternative is to redraw the boundary and make Bekaa part of Syria. Then see if Asaad has the stones to be a real chip off the old block.

wretchard,

Why would Syria allow such a defeat? My guess is as StratFor put it: Assad would rather survive than save Hezbollah and risk war with Israel. But you are right: the longer Israel takes, the less likely its success will be, and a decision will not be reached.

How unfortunate that world opinion will rise against the good guys . . . que sera sera.

All readers may be interested in an update I just posted in the body of the post above. It points to a Counterterrorism Blog analysis that a large-scale ground invasion is not likely.

Mrs. Davis, I almost mentioned this in the post when I wrote it last night -- the idea of redrawing Lebanon's borders to give the Beka'a to Syria. But it seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible to happen. Lebanese land to Syria for peace in Israel? It would work, no doubt about it, but the powers that be would never agree.

Narallah is like that famous knight in Monty Python who keeps boasting and taunting his opponinet after each of his limbs are severed. It is just not in his character to recongnize defeat, and he will try to raionalize whatever he is left with as a victory if he survives at all.

However, I disagree that time favors Heaballah in this war. It is pretty clear that Israel is going to get the time it needs to destroy Hezballah and no one other than Syria and Iran is carrying their brief. Even Tony Blair today admitted that it was not time for a cease fire. The world in effect has accepted Israel's terms for a cease fire, that leaves Hezballah's acceptance of those terms as a defeat. Hezballah's humiliation would be a good thing in the war on terror and would discredit Syria and Iran as well as take away their major proxie warriors. There is really no reason not to give Israel the time to do it.

If time were on the side of Hezballah, Israel's decision not to launch a combat persisting ground campaign would be a mistake. However, since they have been given the gift of time, they can methodically destroy the Hezballah infrastructure with a very aggressive raiding strategy which does not play into Hezballah's strengths of boobytraps against armor.

So far, Israel's strategy has robbed Hezballah of its strenths and Hezballahs rocket attacks into Israel, while frightening to civilians, are militarily insignificant, i.e. they do not effect Israel's ability to attack and defeat the enemy. That is the major difference in the strategies of the two sides. Israel is attacking Hezballahs assets used to attack Israel, while Hezballah is impotent to attack Israel's military assets that are destroying them.

I really hate to say this but...

Why are you guys not aware of the battle going on between ground troops that started a few hours ago and is raging?

According to Debka, Israeli Special Forces got caught flat footed by huge amount of Hezzies who were hiding in tunnels right behind the border.

The Israelis just waltzed across the border not knowing about the tunnels

Jim Peterson,

I think the question is whether a large-scale ground assault reaching north to the Beka'a will be mounted. They've done more than a couple of cross-border raids in the past few days, but nothing that buys real estate and keeps it as far as I know. I'll wait for independent confirmation before trusting Debka. Thanks for keeping me on my toes.

Because Israel is so small and it's reserve forces so well trained, they can call up reserve forces very quickly. In fact, they rely on the fact that they can recall reserves in a nearly instantanious manner. So I am not sure I would read anything into the fact that only a small number of reserves have been called so far. That could change in a matter of hours. Israel doesn't need to call up reserves as early as we do before action.

Israel wants to get Hezbollan to move to the North of the Litani River. They might be able to weaken Hezbollah sufficiently for the Lebanese army to do the job but a large portion of that army is Shiite and sympathetic to Hezbollah so I wouldn't want to lead a body of troops against an enemy that half my troops might decide to fight alongside with.

They key to cracking Hezbollah credibility will be pushing Hezbollah back even a small distance from the border. Israel is currently making what appear to be the preparations for a ground incursion. I know this because I am watching it on television live. Fences are being punched through, SP arty. and tanks are shelling Lebanese towns on the other side.

Pushing Hezbollah out of even the first few KM of the border area clobbers their rhetoric that they are somehow a deterrent to Israel. Israel won't need to occupy the area, they just need to take a few border towns. Serious diplomatic pressure to stop anything won't start until next Monday. Israel could probably resist that pressure for at least a week, probably two or three depending on exactly how things play out and what the diplomatic rhetoric is.

Oh, anyone heard any confirming information that the NorKs are getting ready for something? Last I heard they have cancelled all military leave, enacted even more severe travel restrictions than normal and were in the process of camoflaging everything they have. All news I have seen on that appear to originate from one unconfirmed report.

Hi Chester,

I am just thinking: what exactly happened in that battle today? Apparently hundreds of Hezzies came out of a rabbit warren of tunnels just across the border. American GIs used CS gas in such tunnels in Vietnam to smoke out thousands didn't they?

I have to assume that Israel can make short work of any Hezzies in these rabbit warrens along the entire length of the border...now that the IDF finally knows about them (as of today at Noon).

I would assume that this is an easy thousand dead Hezzies...or am I probably not correct on this?

Debka is only right 50% of the time, but when its right, its dead on. But Debka cut off in the middle of the battle with that last report this afternoon.

I can answer my own question: the IDF doesn't want to advertise how they are going to roll up this network of rabbit warrens.

In the 3 week Iraq War, the best site for news was www.iraqwar.ru, where Russian intelligence was giving a play by play until the Russian convoy was shot at and Putin clamped down on his renegades who were apparently running the site. The IraqWar.ru site was rich with information that I couldn't get anywhere else, the facts of which were probably true.

What sites, besides this, can allow a better view of this war?

Merve,

Are you sure about this comment on Tony Blair? I have NOT SEEN THAT, but delaying, or TOTALLY ELIMINATING ALL United Nations action is the greatest answer to Prayer the world can hope to find!

"It is pretty clear that Israel is going to get the time it needs to destroy Hezballah and no one other than Syria and Iran is carrying their brief. Even Tony Blair today admitted that it was not time for a cease fire".

Without a ground invasion, how can Israel engage the bodies of Hezbollah insurgents and reduce their numbers? While it is fine for air attacks to take out buildings, supply routes and oil stores, this will have little direct effect on the guys with the AKs and RPGs. What I see is a clear preparation of the battlefield for a ground attack designed to maximize Hezbollah casualties. Further, the world climate seems to favor Israel now.
A thought...
The next move by Israel might be a feinting thrust toward Bekaa on the right flank, and then an armored thrust in force from the seacoast to surround the territory currently held by Hezbollah. Then a sqeezedown would take place to eliminate those trapped in the pocket. A run up the Bekaa could follow, if the Syrians have been cowed sufficiently to stay out of the fight. All of this would explain the delay in starting the ground phase.

Jim, I remember that site. Apparently, our memories are different, however. I remember that it was one of the most innaccurate sites on the web, competing with Jihad Online. If the number of destroyed US tanks that they reported had been true, our troops would have been walking to Baghdad halfway into the war.

Here is the URL on the Tony Blair statement that was made in the House of Commons today, http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1153291947778&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Here are some excerpts from teh AP story:

"British Prime Minister Tony Blair rejected calls Wednesday for Israel to declare a unilateral cease-fire in the burgeoning Mideast conflict, insisting that Hizbullah must first free Israeli soldiers and stop firing rockets at the Jewish state.

"Blair told lawmakers at his weekly House of Commons question session that Hizbullah must make the first move to halt hostilities that erupted a week ago when a militants nabbed two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid.

"'This would stop now if the soldiers who were kidnapped wrongly ... were released,' he said. 'It would stop if the rockets stopped coming into Haifa, deliberately to kill innocent civilians.'

"'If those two things happened, let me promise ... I would be the first out there saying "Israel should halt this operation,"' Blair said."

Some of the opposition raised the "proportionality" canard.

Agreed that IraqWar.ru exagerrated losses of American tanks...but it seemed nevertheless to be information coming directly out of Saddam's government (and passed to the Russians).

So battles were discussed that would be classified by the USA military and only the enemy would know about them otherwise.

Even if its fiction, I would like to get an enemy account of the border skirmishes of the past 24 hours.

Because all I am getting otherwise are the propaganda of dead child photos.

Maybe there is a Russian or Iraqi or Sunni Arab site that has access to info, for instance on the real casualties that Hizbollah is taking, etc.

I have cyrillic on my computer and can do a Google search for a war blog in Russian.

I don't think we should read to much into the fact that Israel hasn't ordered a large mobilization of reserves yet. It may mean no more than it is contemplating an air campaign of several weeks and that it doesn't want to mess up its economy or telegraph its punch until it is closer to landing it.

Also, two historical points are worth keeping in mind:

1. Israel conducted a three-year-long war of attrition with Egypt 1968-70 in which there was always some partial mobilization of reserves. And it did so at a time when its economy was smaller and its military was both smaller and less well armed. We shouldn't underestimate Israel's staying power.

2. That particular war of attrition was ended by an air campaign, which at the climax was killing several thousand egyptian troops a month. And this before the age of precision guided munitions. We shouldn't underestimate the lethality of an air campaign.

Debka had a report earlier today that Israel had told the remaining 300,000 civilians (whatever that means) south of the Litani to leave. That suggests that a very intensive air campaign is about to begin. I don't think a major ground offensive will occur until Nasrallah's excitable boys have been reduced to a condition resempling Saddam's forces in Kuwait at the end of Gulf War I (although it might be moved up if the attacks on the northern cities get more intense).

The point is it would be misleading, if not outright wrong, to assume time is not on Israel's side in this. Indeed, it increasingly looks like this is one of those rare occassions when it is. It's taken a few days, but the U.S., the U.K., and even much of Old Europe is figuring out that they have much to gain by the destruction of Hezbollah and much to lose by it's survival in the current struggle. That works to the advantage of the good guys.

Finally, the discovery that Hezbollah's rat holes had rats in them is good news, even if an Israeli special forces unit got bloodied. If one of Nasrallah's surprises was an offensive to be launched out of tunnels or an ambush of an invading force, he has lost the element of surprise now.

Let me also note (previous comment awaiting moderation)

The official US Navy deployment page:

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy.asp?id=146

Shows nothing in the Med, The Arabian Gulf, or the Indian Ocean. Two carriers near Korea. Two in the Atlantic. Two in the Pacific.

I'd say some one expects some serious shit from the NORKs

Nine U.S. Navy ships are converging on Lebanon from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and from U.S. European Command. The European Command ships are arriving in the "joint operating area" already, Walsh said. The CENTCOM ships are expected over the next few days. DoD also has contracted with the Greek-flagged Orient Queen to evacuate Americans from the Lebanese capital. The ship is pierside in Beirut, Walsh said, and it will take on passengers overnight and leave for Cyprus in the morning. He said he anticipates the vessel will carry between 800 and 1,000 Americans to safety.

The admiral said two more ships will be part of the ferrying activity between Beirut and Cyprus. The Rahmah will arrive in Cyrus tomorrow and begin ferrying refugees shortly thereafter. That vessel has a capacity of around 1,400. The trip to Cyprus from Beirut lasts about five hours, DoD officials said.

The United States also is working with European nations that are evacuating their nationals from Lebanon. Walsh said Navy ships from the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy are operating in the waters off Lebanon.

He said the non-combatant evacuation process "is a complex operation that involves an extraordinary level of effort."

"We're sending the very best we have, and we will move at max speed," he added.

The admiral said he expects U.S. Navy vessels, especially large-capacity amphibious ships, to participate in the evacuation. Amphibious ships are designed to conduct beach landings. They're frequently used for humanitarian operations and disaster relief.

http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=24736

The only victory for Israel is the destruction of Hizb'allah in Lebanon. any other outcome is a victory for Hizb'allah.

Not knowing what the mission was in Lebanon utilizeing the IDFSF No one can know what was the effect desired.
Probe a point via ground attack, launch a demonstration to get comm signals running back to Nasarallah's bunker for ELINT to trace and maybe drop some bombs on the location later on.
Screw up or roper dope who knows?

I am concerned about North Korea. China tells the Norks what to do don't they?

What's China's angle?

I would personally get the heck out of Tel Aviv about now. I vowed to leave my home of New York City after 9-11 and not return until after Iran and Iraq were liberated. I am still waiting for the Iran part.

From what I am reading about the Iranians and North Korea...and now about two carriers of NK and no carriers in the Gulf (don't need them now that Iraq is a big carrier)...I wouldn't trust living downtown Tel Aviv at the particular moment.

North Korea reportedly has cancelled leaves and is covering up military assests.

Mahmoud has announced, "Muslims will soon rejoice!"

He also stated that Iran will respond on August 22 to the UN Security Counsel's demands.

Has NorK delivered missile-sized nuke warheads to Iran and is bracing for a US attack?

Does China see an opportunity to invade Taiwan while the world is focused on the ME?

Why has the US and the EU not marshalled military units to be sent to Lebanon to help Israel destroy Hizbollah?

"Why has the US and the EU not marshalled military units to be sent to Lebanon to help Israel destroy Hizbollah?"

Because the EU and the State Department are allies of Hezbolla, or at least enemies of Israel. Both State and the EU see the solution to the ME problem as the destruction of Israel. They are to short-sighted to see that after Israel, they are next. Remember, State is the last bastion of the W.A.S.P.
I think the IDF has waited this long for a reason. Hezzies are much better then your run of the mill terrorist. Considering that Iran has sent 60,000 'tourists' to Lebanon since the meeting in Damascus last April ( or was it march?) and that the mad mullhas chose that place at this time to start a fight, it looks like they are ready willing and able to kick the IDF's arse up around it's shoulders.
That might be why the IDF is being very cautious about running a few thousand soldiers in against 100,000 + terrs in prepared positions.
If it looks like a trap, sounds like a trap and smells like a trap, it just might be a trap. I'm sure Mossad has lots of data that isn't on the internet.
Besides, going into Lebanon and shooting Hezzies might be fun, but it won't acomplish much. Progress will only come after the Mad Mullahs and the Young Lion are helped off this mortal coil by well placed explosives. That is much easier to say then to do.
If you are going to assassinate someone from the air, you pretty much have to have Air Superority. Otherwise the target just hangs out until your aircraft have to make a pit stop. Then they scurryoff to a new rock and crawl under.
The USA can do it, since we have the weapons systems that can loiter for hours days weeks or even months and years over an area. Put a B-52 cell over some Mullahs bunker and replace it every 8 hours and he isn't going anywhere. Drop a new JDAM on his bunker every 15 minutes or so and even the dumbest Mullah will figure it out eventually. The IAF just cannot do this ( No true long range air assets, although the F-22 will change that). Only the US Air Force can, and right now PRESIDENT Bush has them on a very short leash.

Second thoughts;
The NorKs are ace tunnelers. Eventually we are going to have to do them. If the IDF can come up with some way to locate tunnels from the air, then the whole tunnel game becomes useless. Right now the enemy has only one answer to our complete and total control of the air they breath. Go underground. The down side on that strategy was discovered by the Japs in Luzon in '45. You don't have to fight them when they are underground, you just seal the tunnels and let them eat each other in the dark. But to do that you have to know where the tunnels open out. So if the IDF can invent a way of locating tunnels from the air, they can be closed up from the air.
IIRC, ground penetrating Radar has severe limitations, as in it's useless in urban environments. Geologists use sound waves and computers to locate pockets in the earth, but I think that is a very short ranged system.
I wonder if that is what the strike on the 'moaque/headquarters' was about. Maybe the IDF has hard intell that there was a nexus of tunnels under that building and they were trying to collapse some tunnels. Should have borrowed a MOAB. There is a difference between 23 2,000 Lb explosions happening close together and a single 30,000 explosion.
Anyway, maybe this administration and the Blair administration is buying time for the IDF to figure something out. Whatever is cooked up to find Hezbolla tunnels might just work on Korean tunnels also.
As a side benifit, attacks are up 40% in Iraq, but the MSM is too stretched, logistically, to cover both fronts, so Iraq moves to page 8A.

"As a side benifit, attacks are up 40% in Iraq"

The actual Number is from 34 to 44 mostly Sunni vs Shia.

I think the west and the Arabs are not as loud as they could be because this is the last best chance to avoid the full scale war that is on the way otherwise.

Iran wants to dominate the middle east. Russia under Putin wants to check America, China wouldn't mind keeping us tied down as they progress as well. Thus their act as enablers of Iran in the secuirty counsel. Both of them figure the bull's eye is not painted on them, and if IRAN considered it CHINA and RUSSIA would not be so cirumspect about tactics as Israel or us.



This is basically Spain in the 30's. Iran is testing themselves and their proxies against Israel, (counting their guns if you saw the Movie Zulu) finding out what israel will and will not do to protect themselves.



They are making Israel expend blood, and treasure to protect themselves from the small threat and watching intently.



I think Iran figures international presure will eventually force Israel to stop before finishing off Hezbollah, they hope to use Lebnease nationalism in their favor against Israel rather than have it directed against Syria. The plan is to keep them busy removing the focus on the Iran bomb that is progressing slowly but surely.



Even if Israel managers to neutralize Hizbollah as long as Syria isn't drawn into the war they still have a threat in being to keep them worried. Iran's threat to go war over Syria is smoke. The last thing they want is a shooting war with the US army on two sides of them (actually 3) Iran needs time and that is what they are playing for.



The Iranian nightmare is Israel taking out Syria Suddenly there is only one troublemaker in the middle east and all the eyes and attention will be on it. There is little to fear along those lines (unfortunately) Syria has learned the lesson of the 67 war not to believe exagerated stories of success. They know Israel would has enough on their plate and doesn't want more, same with the US. As long as Syria doesn't do anything stupid (such as deploy troops or use Iraqi WMD'S they will likley be able to sit this one out.



I actually think everybody understands this, I think they are counting on Israel to clean up the neighborhood so they don't have to act. Sort of like the pols in Germany during the Reagan years publically saying one thing for PR and privately saying another because they understand reality. No western country with large arab cloistered arab populations are going to speak publically in favor of Israel, they are too afraid of thier own weakness and their own Arab populations. Ditto for the Arab nations. It is all going to come down to Israel. The hope is that Israel can win and thus put pressure on Iran by the destruction of it's proxies.



It will not work. The loss of Hezbolla will not slow down the bomb development one bit, it will not effect the development one bit except to keep Israel busy while it goes on.



Iran has already publicaly said Israel will not survive an Islamic bomb held by them. Israel believe's this and if they don't they are being foolish.



This is where the rubber meets the road. This is also where I say some terrible things. I believe they are true. I suspect in the end it will result in something horrible but I can see it coming and I don't see it being stopped:



If the Iranian bomb is not stoppped it will be used either as a first stike weapon on Israel or as a club to beat the rest of the arab world over the head, or both. This is what this current war is really all about.



The international community is took weak to stop it and is counting on either the US or Israel. Right now the US has a full plate and although it has the military might to stop it, doesn't have the political will due to the highly effective media war waged by Iran and their Iraqi proxies. That leaves Israel.



In my opinion Israel can't win a war against Iran. It is too small and too far away. It likely can't take out the Iranian bomb using conventional weapons either. If the world community or the US doesn't do the job the only way Israel can would be with the bomb.



I think the international community is not going to do the job and the choice for Israel is going to be nuclear first strike or no. If the state of Israel is going to survive This is a horrible thing to say but I believe it is correct.



Iran may or may not understand this, but I think the rulling Mullas wouldn't mind a nuclear exchange with Israel, particularly if it comes after their bomb is developed. Either way they can't lose. Even if multiple cities go Israel is destroyed, many of their own pesky protestors go too and world outrage is against the Jews. It might even generate a nationalistic surge to bring their own public back to their side. It's a cold thing to say but we have seen demonstrated time and time again the love these despots have for their own people and the value they place on their lives.



All of this really stinks, and I don't see a way out of it, the choices seem to be war, war or submission, not a good choice among them.



I would very much love to be wrong, but I don't see it.

Peter,

Read Revelation, in English. Israel WILL NOT be destroyed by any nuclear weapons from Iran.

Charles don't take this the wrong way, but if I was a military planner, I’m not going to base my plans on any scripture which is subject to interpretation in many ways (which is why you have hundreds of Protestant denominations) except in the context of what one side might be doing based on a religious belief . I.E. Iran and the Imam.

We can debate scripture some other time, as I said before I would be delighted to be wrong and pray that I am.