For Israel, crushing Hezbollah could well be a victory of major proportions. If the victory is achieved because Israel wasn't hobbled by ceasefires imposed by outside powers -- if the principle is established that the Arab world can't expect that the wars it starts will be switched off like a light when it starts to lose -- then Israel will have a strategic victory to its credit that goes beyond simply smashing Hezbollah.

Israel crushing Hezbollah could be a bigger victory for the U.S. than for Israel. The message sent to Tehran is that the U.S. has more than one way to skin a persian cat, and if you want to hang onto your skin you better not forget it.

El Sadr should be feeling the heat at the same time. It is a pity the Brits felt the need to hand over operations to the Iraqis at a time when offensive operations are required.

Not even the most optimistic IDF planner envisions the destruction of HA. There will be a HA military defeat south of the Litani and some pinpoint operation in the Bekaa. That's all. HA will remain the strongest Lebanese power, only somewhat reduced, humiliated, and a bit more hated.

The destruction of HA requires occupation of the entire state of Lebanon. Forget that.

And yes. That means Israel only bought a certain quite period until the next Lebanon war.

Not even the most optimistic IDF planner envisions the destruction of HA. There will be a HA military defeat south of the Litani and some pinpoint operation in the Bekaa. That's all. HA will remain the strongest Lebanese power, only somewhat reduced, humiliated, and a bit more hated. This will buy Israel a certain quite period until the next Lebanon war.

Destruction of HA requires the complete occupation of the entire state of Lebanon. Not going to happen.

Chester, thanks for response! I'll post an update & link at Gates of Vienna.

Yair -- you misunderstand the premise of this exercise. The question is "what happens if Hizbullah is defeated?". It's a "what-if" game.

Like you, I doubt Hizbullah will be wiped out. But we'll see.

Imagine there's no Hizbullah -- it's easy if you try...

why are we letting these farkers arm up with very, very bad stuff? The other day a shipment of soil testers (celsium dirty bomb motherlodes) was intercepted from GB to Iran. when one says a British firm was attempting to sell these to Tehran one can no longer assume it's some fellow sipping tea and ending every conversation with cheerio. British firm could be called the Party of God Ltd and it's still a british firm.

A defeat for Hezballah is a strategic defeat for Iran. Hezballah is using up the ordinance that Iran expected to use to deter and punish Israel if it attacked its nuke facilities. It is also a defeat for Syria which uses Hezballah in much the same way Pakistan's ISI used the Taliban to control a neighboring country.

For the defeat to be complete the Hezzies have to be disarmed. The current competing cease fire proposals are in major conflict on this point. What this really means is that neither side is ready for a cease fire that is short of what they would achieve by continuing their operations. Unless the military situation chages, I believe Israel will have more than the short time suggested by many to continue its war. Hezballah has not been hurt enough to give up its objectives yet either.

What I expect is a mandated cease fire, Israel pulling out of lebanon, Golan Heights and the west bank.
Then the whole thing starts again.
Hisballah is like a vampire it cannot be killed unless certain things are done.
These are not allowed by the Euros and the U. N.
Basically nothing will change.
Sucks to be us and Israel

If HA was destroyed (or more likely, grievously wounded) it would be an ideal moment to launch a strike against the Iranian nuclear program. Oddly enough, some arab governments might even be sympathetic in private (although they wont be publicly). I think a lot of them secretly fear Iranian domination of the region.

Maybe we will go back to the REAL problem which is a nuclear Iran. does it even make it onto the screen that all this is happening during a G8 summit and right before Iran is about to get hauled into the UN for building a bomb that makes hezbollah look like a boyscout troop?

the art of war is to distract you enemy so much he doesnt even know he already lost.

seems to be working pretty good..

cops are always at war with criminals right? Arent criminals just little countries at war with society? Lebanon is a lawless state full of barbary pirate morons sent to tie down the jews.
fighting the arab is like holding water in your hand, you either drain the whole lake or just get used to the damp..

whose building the nuke plant for the persians? who owns the largest oil reserves in the world?
rosneft? ever heard of it?

how many trillions of dollars are accruing in moscow right now? do you really think the bear jsut went back into its cave?

hamas, hezbis, zcow, they are all kgb trained and fed proxies not just of teheroon but of mockba too.
there's a reason this is taking all of the front pages. the kgb wants the muslims to reign in the chechens, and it wants its prestige back so they are teaming up again. quo bono?

However it comes out -- Iranian terrorism will increase.

As long as free petro dollars flow to Tehran...

You can bet that as long as THAT is in place, Terrorism commited by Farsi speaking operatives will INCREASE.

Let's State what is on the face of it, ISLAM IS IRREVOCABLY INCOMPATIBLE WITH WESTERN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICS.

Islamists need to go back to their countries and scrub deserts, and Borneo Jungles of origin, leaving Europe and the Western Hemisphere, including Brazil, U.S. & Canada.

To cut off Iran's oil production, by any means necessary, would cause a one year mini-crisis, but remove all of Iran's immediate threats and likely cause civil war between the army and the Iranian revolutionary guard for control of the nations food fuel water and bullets. It would Starve Hezbollah, and make Syriia either Impotent largely, or an easier target should it misbehave; It would also remove the manufactured oil shortage threat of the Iranians aimed at appeasers; all of Iran's competitors would be thrilled to sell $100 barell oil for 6 months.

Might cause a recession in the west, but a nuclear Iran would cause a REALLY big recession once they start to shoot the missiles and put them on the really big FROG missiles in Lebanon.

Paul,

I TOTALLY agree with you here:

"if the principle is established that the Arab world can't expect that the wars it starts will be switched off like a light when it starts to lose -- then Israel will have a strategic victory to its credit that goes beyond simply smashing Hezbollah".

As for what comes after, the ONLY permanent peace will come after all Islamists from Syria and Iran face their Japan amd Germany moments. We should empower and arm the Iranian Kurds and Baluchis and let them exterminate the Persian Mullahs in their provinces of Iran. I am NOT SURE if the Mullahs are hated enough yet in the other Iranian provinces to be exterminated.

Iran's oil is ALMOST TOTALLY in its Baluchi province and they hate Persian Shia. They are Sunni. So, we should start a war there.

One of the things that has changed is that there are few if any organizations that can "impose" a cease-fire on Israel. Not the UN. Not the EU. Maybe the US, but maybe not; if we tried, especially after giving Israel the support and encouragement that we've already given them, it would put a huge strain on US-Israel relations.

A more practical goal is to push on Hezbollah until they run out of rockets. Right now, Hezbollah is in a "use them or lose them" situation, and they'll keep launching all they can until they don't have any left. It will take a while, but that seems to be the first "natural" cease-fire point. After that, Israel may still want to push if they haven't already dealt with the Bekaa Valley, but it would be ground war, and Hezbollah will run out of rockets before they run out of bullets. Israel still won't want to get tied down in a ground war.

For Hezbollah to "run out" of rockets will be a political defeat of its own, in some ways. It will tarnish their image of "standing up to Israel no matter what." (And applying lots of tarnish to that image is one reason for Israel to keep pushing.)

After that, or maybe before that, Syria or Iran will probably interfere. They can't afford for Hezbollah to lose face that much.

Once Syria or Iran commits, all bets are off. The Magic 8-ball doesn't see beyond that point. Too much depends on how Syria and Iran respond, whom that response is directed against, and whether it's a direct response or another proxy attack. My guess is that Syria and Iran will respond as soon as they perceive that Israel is close to achieving any strategic goal.

One other consideration is that as long as Hezbollah isn't destroyed (and I'm willing to stipulate that it can't be destroyed), any post-war arrangement will need to prevent Hez from re-arming. Will that include "up to and including bombing any missles in shipment from Syria to Lebanon"? What will be the limits of a "cease" fire?

So far the idea of a multinational peacekeeping force in Lebanon seems to be a non-starter. If no one from the approved list wants to provide troops, it won't happen. (And someone's idea of a civilian peacekeeping force is a non-starter, too; no way do we want a civilian militia performing peacekeeping on a civilian militia.)

The consensus here seems to be: "Talk-Talk" for some time longer. Great! That will allow Israel to exterminate more of the Islamic fighters.

As for Lebanonese "civilians", I will wait and see how many rocket launchers these supposed civilians had in their homes before I comment. I suspect it was a whole lot!

That DOES NOT mean that innocents have not been killed in Lebanon. I suspect that 10 or 15 of the 350 or so that the media whines about have been innocents but that is TOTALLY Hizbollah's fault.

Personally, I'd like to see GWB either mobilize another division or two and drop them into Iraq to let Assad know that he can be replaced or move a division there and turn their sector over to the Iraqi's and let them handle things until we get back. We could go into Syria and force regime change. We have the casus belli as there is plenty of American blood on his hands. If he doesn't play ball, we go in and remove him. Then we pick a strong Syrian General with enough stroke to stay alive to be our man and then pull out back to the Iraqi side of the border, all the while reminding would be coup plotters that we are ready to come back in a moments notice if they mess with our guy. No sticking around, no democracy for Syria, no rebuilding, no worrying about human rights abuses, just a basic realpolitik move to put a guy in charge with some minimal allegiance to us. Simplistic, I know. But a guy can dream can't he?

What is the significance, of the Iranians saying they will give their reply on nuclear materials, on August 22 ? Does this mean, on 8 22 they will test a nuclear weapon ? Could it mean, their terrorist lackies, will detonate a nuclear weapon, in an Israeli or US city ?

It is absolutely correct, that this whole war in Lebanon, is a proxie war to distract the US (in particular) from the Iranian nuclear program.

Iran should be getting hit NOW, very hard, at every advanced weapon facility, and nuclear facility they have, all their leaders should be turned into little fragments, the country needs to get rid of all the mullahs so the younger people who hate them can move forward. But first, destroy all their apparatus for military adventures, and all their nuclear ambitions, and all their revolutionary guards and other repressive internal SS type police. Wipe them out. As the Russians said about the Nazis in Stalingrad, we did not care how many there were, our job was to wipe them out. Well, we have marines and air power next door in Iraq, who are now being used as cops and nothing more, while the Iranian lackeys attack them, day in and day out. It is time for those forces to be deployed against the source of the problem.

diane,

I think you are right about next moves from Syria and Iran.

Publius Hamilton,

I sympathize with your point.

Publius Hamilton, You wrote:

"We could go into Syria and force regime change. We have the casus belli as there is plenty of American blood on his hands. If he doesn't play ball, we go in and remove him".

Yes and No.... One at a time, Please! One at a Time! It seems that Mooky and his Brain-Dead are more in the line of fire NOW. Mooky may, or not live through it, but his power and followers will diminish.

I'd like to see Hezbollah completly destroyed. I don't think Iran will let that happen. Before this is over, assuming Hezbollah is down for the count, Iran will be in this militarily with Syria - although Syria is not much of a contest. Unless they use hezbollah remnants or Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syrian uniforms - at least until they are discovered.

As long as Israel can fight, we will move closer to a much larger conflagration. Iran would like that. I think Ahma-nut-job wants this war more than Hezbollah does. He truly thinks that he can destroy Israel. It's the perfect time to try. Notice that he is using the media pretty much constantly.

And, yes, we will get in it also - probably in southern Iraq first.