The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel.

Syria might be remembering that whenever they go up against Israel they get rolled up like a cheap rug. And that when it comes to big brothers, Israel's is way bigger than theirs. Of course, it's also true that anybody who bases plans on expectations of rational behavior from Arab males is trying to draw to an inside straight. At this point though, I think Israel has crossed the Rubicon. Just bloodying Nasrallah's nose as they've done isn't going to be enough. Stopping here would be worse than having done nothing at all. It leaves Wasserman and Regev in enemy hands, the rocket attacks on Israeli cities unavenged, the anti-Hezballah Lebanese having suffered for nothing, and Nasrallah strutting around preening and claiming victory. Israel can't afford a Mogadishu like that.

There have been lengthy discussions of Israel's logistic problem in striking Iran to eliminate its nukes. However, little has been said about Iran's logistic problems in coming to Syria's aid. The US can prevent her from flying over Iraq and Turkey is much closer to Israel than Iran, so how does Iran get any of its forces or hardware to Syria? Certainly not though Saudia Arabia and Jordon.

Assuming Iran could somehow get its forces into Syria, it would basically be limited to light infantry, which Israel could probably destroy with ease. If Iran attempted to get its antique fighter aircraft into the battle, they would have a very short life. Probably the best Iran could do is give Syria some money.

If Syria has been paying attention for the last week, she does not want any part of this war, however, she might offer sanctuary to fleeing Hezballah fighters. This would only make Syria more vulnerable as a state sponsor of terrorism, since many keep their world headquarters in Damacus. Assad can't afford to become the return address for terrorist attacks.

The Beka Valley is intriquing because of the allegations that Saddam's WMD is there. If there is a multinational force brought into Lebanon, this is where I would put them. Israel is not going to let them take border positions because it is unlikely that the force would be effective against Hezballah infiltration. However, in the Beka the force could go on a WMD hunt while it is patrolling to keep Hezballah from using it as a launch area.

The fly waiting to land in all this ointment are the large chemical weapons stocks in Syria's possession.

This one campaign in a larger war.

If I had to guess (which, of course, I am doing now) I'd suspect the Israelis will move into Lebanon... and ultimately go on into the Beka, but that they will await some sort of "twitch" by Syria before acting against that power.

I mean, if Syria will sit while Israel takes out Hezbollah, why not let them ? Boy Assad sitting is a reasonable odds bet in this context...there is absolutely nothing in Syrian military history that oughta make him like his chances gainst Israel.

I would guess there are still background negotiations and logistics matters to get ready, but that Israel is going to move. How can they not ? There is no way an outcome that leaves Hezbollah sitting in southern Lebanon could be a good thing for Israel. If Hezbollah survives this...if they essentially get away with thumbing their noses at Israel...the Israelis will be dooming themselves by inaction.

We all know the sole reason Iran has not been attacked to date, and it has nothing to do with Iranian capability. It has everything to do with the stability of the US economy. Obviously Iran has been engaged in Iraq for at least the better part of 4-years now. Who do you think is supplying support for the Iraqi insurgency, as well as the insurgents themselves. INFINITELY more Iraqi's are being blown up than Americans. it's not Iraqi's doing the detonating. The solution is an easy one, but would require that Americans swallow $5/gallon gasoline for at least 6-months, and that's ONLY IF "Non-negative-American" Iranian revolution takes place. 1st, de=fang Iran. Sink every ship, destroy every aircraft, port, Airbase and military installation. Destroy all command-and-control capability. Bockade the Strait of Hormuz to stop all oil exports and thus cripple the Iranian economy. But first we MUST BE SURE that the Iranian government will be toppled and replaced by Iranian revolutionary forces that are AT LEAST not hostile to America, if not actually friendly toward us. I think it's time to tell the Iranian population to flee where we will target, and wipe the Mullah's off the map.

just curious but, folowing up on Merv's comment, any comments on this?

http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=4261

Granted, Iran has neither sea lift nor airlift capable of transporting a meaningful force beyond it's borders. If memory serves, what she does have are small attack craft and a sub or two - naval units sufficient to disrupt oil shipments in the gulf and, perhaps for internal propaganda purposes, to attempt a quick in and out nuisance shelling of Elat.

With the United States flying a cap over Iraq and the gulf, Iran's only realistic method of striking Israel would be to use missiles. She has lots of those, and so long as they are not tipped with poison gas or, God forbid, something worse, Israel would be hard pressed to come up with a sustained retaliation.

Dave, suppose Iran strikes Israel with her conventionally tipped Shahad missiles (which are probably Rodongs). Okay, they've just committed a casus belli on behalf of Boy President.

Israel could not come up with a sustained retaliation, that is true, but they could destroy Bashar and Natanz with Unit 69. We would GLADLY supply them with the munitions they would need, plus the forward staging (hell, the Saudis would probably allow them to base out of King Fahd...they want Bashar destroyed as much as the Israelis and ourselves do!). There are, in addition, numerous other targets that the Iranians have invested billions of dinar in that they'd rather not risk at this time.

The WOT will never end until all the terrorist states are destroyed. Iran, Iraq, Syria, was the terrorist state supporters. Iraq split their lines and gave US a position to pressure and strike both Iran & Syria.

Israel I believe with US is going to go all the way. Syria is theirs Iran is ours.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3277533,00.html

Israel ordered the reserves to the West Bank so the Regulars could deploy North. Ohh and they reinstated the draft. That last part says long long long conflict planning.

The biggest tell in my eyes is the Arab League.

http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=5652

To make Saudi Arabia, & Egypt to not only pass but actively stop a hate Jew opportunity. Then on top of that hint blame on Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and Syria. WTF that is either a piece of the best Diplomatic work ever by US/Israel or those leaders US allies understand that the US is done playing and its just like we said after 9-11 you are with US or against US.

Those leaders know full well that if they chose the Islamist side over the US side they would lose. And worse even if they did somehow win and drive the US/Israel from the field the Islamist next target would be those very "corrupted dictators". So their only option is to throw their lot with the US or die.

But those leaders would never even hint such unless it really was game time and they just hinted it real loud were they stand not only with the US but the most hated Joooo's.

It’s on. I think Israel will go it slow degrading Hezbollah as much as possible before they expand to the Bekaa something that will surely draw in Syria either by their choice or Israel chasing Hezbollah across the border. Like you mentioned Chester the Bekaa borders Syria like we know in Afghanistan if they cross the mountains with no blocking force across the border it’s a useless operation.

This is the Big Show Guys and WW4 yeah it started in the 80’s and we just didn’t realize it until 9-11 and it sounds like the whole world including even those who refuse to see will learn as well very soon very soon indeed.

If Iran launches missiles, Israel has no alternative but to think the worst and counterlaunch.

Israel and the US have GOT to deal with Syria and Iran NOW. If we don't, and Iran gets nukes, the entire free world is in for some fearsome trouble down the line.

And the reason isn't the Islamofascists, though they are a big part of it. The main reason is China. Who do you think supplies Iran with most of its missiles? Who do you think is watching this whole War on Terror thing with a microscope, to see if we have a backbone and reproductive organs, or if we are a paper tiger?

Oh, yeah, and the Russkies - with their dreams of recreating the Soviet Empire plus - are also watching.

If we screw this up, then kiss anything even approaching a peaceful future goodbye, and start teaching your kids and grandkids how to shoot and how to read radiation meters.

C-Low,

I noticed that mention of a draft in that article too, but wondered if it was referring to the callup of the three reserve brigades or if it referred to a separate draft. We'll see soon enough.

And I agree: the condemnation of Hezbollah by no less than Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and the UAE is a watershed.

Allen,

Surely the Iranians know this . . . And not only that, but Israel's three Dolphin class subs give them a survivable first strike capability. The US Strategic Triad is composed of land-based missiles, sub-based missiles, and long-range bombers. Israel's is the same but with long-range fighter-bombers instead.

I don't believe the threat is as significant as it might seem. If you only look at numbers of tanks, sure, it would appear worse than I believe it really is. Many of these tanks are reportedly in poor repair. Many have been more-or-less dug in as permanent defensive emplacements. It would take time to get these dug out and the tanks readied for movement and this activity wouldn't go unnoticed. In other words, there would be plenty of warning.

Secondly, terrain cuts both ways. Those same passes that would allow armor into the valley are choke points that can be blocked by knocking out a couple of vehicles. Modern armor is fairly useless against modern air.

I would do two things. First, if it beame obvious that the Syrian armor were preparing to move I would begin my preparations. The instant a Syrian unit crossed into Lebanon I would immediately begin a program of closing the roads, eliminating the air defenses of Syria, and eliminating every single drop of fuel Syria owns. I would wipe out every fuel storage tank, tanker truck, pipeline, refinery, depot. My goal would be not to eliminate the armored vehicles, but to eliminate their ability to move.

As for Syrian air, I believe that problem is easy to manage. Their planes are old and they have only a few. Israel could knock them down as fast as they take to the air.

What is the more likely scenario, in my opinion, is that the bulk of Hezbollah will head into mountain tunnels that terminate in Syria. Israel will take the Bekaa valley and find little in the way of Hezbollah. They will all be in Syria having used the tunnels to escape. They will wait out the operation and re-infiltrate once Israel leaves. In this scenario Syria does nothing to provoke an Israeli action. They give Israel no overt reason to attack them. Syria hosts Hezbollah for as long as it takes, and then Hezbollah goes home once Israel tires of occupying the valley.

"My goal would be not to eliminate the armored vehicles, but to eliminate their ability to move."

Oh, and my reason for that is that if I wipe out all their armor, once things are over, they will be in the market replacing it all with new, more modern gear that is harder to kill. If I am able to neutralize it without destroying it, chances are better they will keep their old obsolete armor longer and be less of a threat in the long run.

Chester: Just above the perspective map, the last sentence of the paragraph, did you omit the word "NOT"? The sentence would then read: "If they do [NOT] attack Syria and crush al Assad's government,Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever."

On the plus side, consider the tactical situation if Boy Assad is overthrown, even if no invasion/occupation of Syria occurs. The Syrians would end up fighting each other as well as the Lebanese factions that hate them. Iran has all of a sudden no staging ground for resupply to Hezbollah and Hamas. The battle space is clear from Israel right through to Iran. This prospect must be irresistible to US war planners. Israel is our North Korea. Jordan and Egypt and SA will stay out, not knowing which side to back in Syria. Iran will back down, end their nuke program or see it utterly destroyed and blame the Arabs' lack of fighting ability, as always.

On the plus side, consider the tactical situation if Boy Assad is overthrown, even if no invasion/occupation of Syria occurs. The Syrians would end up fighting each other as well as the Lebanese factions that hate them. Iran has all of a sudden no staging ground for resupply to Hezbollah and Hamas. The battle space is clear from Israel right through to Iran. This prospect must be irresistible to US war planners. Israel is our North Korea. Jordan and Egypt and SA will stay out, not knowing which side to back in Syria. Iran will back down, end their nuke program or see it utterly destroyed and blame the Arabs' lack of fighting ability, as always.

On the plus side, consider the tactical situation if Boy Assad is overthrown, even if no invasion/occupation of Syria occurs. The Syrians would end up fighting each other as well as the Lebanese factions that hate them. Iran has all of a sudden no staging ground for resupply to Hezbollah and Hamas. The battle space is clear from Israel right through to Iran. This prospect must be irresistible to US war planners. Israel is our North Korea. Jordan and Egypt and SA will stay out, not knowing which side to back in Syria. Iran will back down, end their nuke program or see it utterly destroyed and blame the Arabs' lack of fighting ability, as always.

crosspatch,
Your observation on terrain is true, that it cuts both ways. I wish I had better maps and more information on the Syrian military to make better conjectures. This is why I'm relying on StratFor so much for this post, because they are usually pretty good at such things.

SCATTTERSHOT,
I don't think I left a word out. Could be a typo in the original article. Not sure if they mean Hezbollah could emerge stronger if Syria is toppled, or Hezbollah coule emerge stronger if Syria is not toppled. You are right though, the latter makes more sense.

Robert Speirs,
War planners would be most concerned about two things: terrorism metastasizing in Syria, and any WMD programs. The combination of these two factors are enough to discount their willingness to force the toppling of Assad with no clear alternative. Also, the State Department despises chaos and loves stability, no matter how it is constituted.

Great analysis and graphics Chester. Iran and Syria must be sweating from being increasingly isolated.

This post and comments are great. One thing that would result from Syria's use of Chemical weapons is the TOTAL elimination of French and other cheese-eating surrender money whining. It MIGHT even silence the fifth column N.Y. Times writers and management. Maybe their treason could even cause them to spend the rest of their lives in prison. Actions do have consequences, you know.

As for logistics and other important secrets, count on the N.Y. Times to tell Hizbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran as soon as they can.

I have a problem with the whole liberal "Logic" in regards to regime change in Syria and Iran. The Left argues that we might get something worse.

SO? We might get something better also. Look at my logic.
Destroying a terrorist supporting tyrant will either produce another one, or it won't. So we have a 50% chance of getting a new tyrant and a 50% chance of getting something else. If we roll snake eyes and get another tyrant, then we do the regime change thingie again, until we get something better. Sooner or later we will roll a seven. The key is avoiding military invasions to do the regime change. Use the B-2 and JDAM's instead. The worst that can happen is we miss and force the tyrant to live in his bunker. Considering it's impossible to run a regime from a bunker, driving them underground is almost as good a stir-frying them.
For a historical analogy, think back to the days of gunboat diplomacy, only replace the gunboat with a B-2. It was amazing how many despots saw the light when a Royal Navy Man`O War pulled up and started lobbing shells into his palace.
My second beef is this wierd thing about tunnels and bunkers as protection from modern weapons. It is totally bogus. The term mission kill hasn't yet made it into the general lexicon. Hide what every you want in your tunnel. I will put a 2,000Lb JDAM on the tunnel door and that is that. What ever is in that tunnel will stay there until I decide it's OK for it to be dug out.

Ultima ratio regum. (The final argument of kings)
- Inscription on french cannons, on order of Louis XIV

"He who stays on the defensive does not make war, he endures it"
- Field Marshal Colmar Baron von der Goltz, 1883

Stehpinkeln notes the B-2/JDAM combo is unstoppable. The Holy Grail of Surgical Strike is a reality which ensures the US can decapitate any government at will. However- Said capability changes the rules but also has repurcussions for us too. Means the US Gov't would be fair game for decapitation also. America doesn't have to worry about enemy B-2s but there are other ways. No, I'm not advocating destroying our gov't. But I view with concern that our setting a precedent by destroying the Syrian gov't would open a very bad box (tempting though it may be). Same goes for the Norks and Iranians- Capabilities are one thing but Intentions are another. If we intend killing a gov't ours will have to move underground. Also.

Sure BUT the Euros and the left are already getting their shiite together to hamstring and stop the IDF from ending this one way or another.
Israel will kick butt but thanks to Islams allies will not be allowed to do the job right.
10 years from now it all happens again.

Harrison,

I think you misunderstand my post. I don't recommend regime change at this time. I'm merely trying to guess how likely it is that the conflict will spread to Syria, and what the consequences for the US might be.

Couple of things:

1. Hezbollah has already lost much. Even if the fighting stopped today they would not be the same as before. The Israeli papers are saying they have taken out close to 50% of Hezbollah's military capability. Hezbollah now knows it has little Arab support and almost zero support outside the region and they know they have lost a lot of support and created considerable resentment against themselves in the population of Lebanon.

2. It is obvious the fighting isn't going to stop today. The most obvious indication is the evacuations. We would not perform such an operation unless we thought it was required. The evacuations send a signal that we expect the situation to further deteriorate in Lebanon and that we expect the conditions to remain in the deteriorated state for long enough to warrant removing our people from the area.

Hezbollah should be getting worried about the viability of their organization at this point and getting ready any "final redoubt" plans they might have prepared. I would expect Israel and the US to communicate with each other and seeing the US evacuate their citizens after 7 days of Israeli bombardment would not be a good sign to either Hezbollah or the Lebanese government.

I honestly don't believe Hezbollah has much time left after these evacuations are complete. That is when you will see the major portion of Israel's plan begin to unfold.

I have to think that none of the above will happen. I think the conflict will be confined to killing Hezbollah in Lebanese territory.

Israel's leadership and population will never allow the IDF to go into Syria unless Syria attacks first.

As far as that goes, the rest of the world is determined to get this conflict either stopped or restricted to the south Lebanese border area.

The economy is the key. The world simply does not want the economy trashed over Israel's fight with Hezbollah, its just not worth it to them. They know that if they encourage Israel and threaten Iran and Syria, things will go to hell quickly taking the economy with it for a long time.

Money talks, bullshit (and doing the right thing) walks.

Oh, just read this Iran's 2,000 volunteers are strapping up and standing by.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

The enemy is fanatical religious zeal. Without this zeal, Hezbollah would be kicked out of Lebanon and the mad mullahs would be thrown from Iran immediately. What is the physical source of this zeal----the zeal which is the true enemy the rational world faces?

It is a six letter word beginning with "m" and ending with "e". What is the vector of this toxic and malicious zeal? There are several, the generic term of which is a six letter word beginning with "c" and ending with "c". Where are the vectors created and trained? Many are made and trained in places named by a seven letter word that begins with "m" and ends with "a". Who provides the funds for the creation and training of these vectors? Fat cowardly men who have grown rich from the sale of a mineral resource, the name of which is a three letter word that begins with "o" and ends with "l".

Go to the source and destroy the vector. Destroy the places where future vectors are created, and destroy the fat cowards who fund this creation. Continue this destruction as needed. You must do this over and over again until the zeal is rendered to utter futility. The rest will be easy.

I think Iran and Syria have already lost.

Hezbollah is doomed, as is Hamas. Death by plinking. And well deserved!

Iran and Syria have lost because the Arab states finally see that they have to make a choice between a nutty Persian Shia totalitarian, who wants them to submit to his leadership, or staying on the sidelines.

Big choice.

As soon as the Euro-weasel appeasers figure this out, things may get much tougher for Syria and Iran. No need to back a loser after all (unless they still have cash and even then the price will go up!)

What sane person in that neighborhood wants a nut with nukes on their border?

(The same question should be put to China and Russia, when they wake up.)

Israel today called up three brigades with the intention of deploying them to Gaza and taking the Gaza brigades and using them in the north.

That cuts offensive deployment from 6 days to about 4. Maybe less.

My guess is that Israel intends to humiliate Syria into an attack. Syria has already been caught trying to resupply Hizbollah with rockets. Evidently they are running short near the border.

If Syria gets into the fight Iran will be drawn in.

Iran has been promising an attack in August. I think Israel and America are going to rush their timetable. Standard spoiling attack tactics.

BTW I gave you the Israeli mobilization timetable in another thread. My bet is that Syria was counting on 5 or 6 days. The difference of several days time totally dislocated the French in 1940. The Syrians are not as good as the French, after all to a certain extent they are French clients.

Chester,

I apologise if I misunderstood your point of view.

With regard to whether Iran will be drawn into the conflict, their vision to establish a Persian Caliphate in the Shia Crescent will probably induce them to confront the U.S. and Israel should Syria come under invasion. Don't forget that Saudi Arabia intends to counter Iranian influence through its propagation of Wahhabism; Egypt intends to neuter domestic popularity of the Brotherhood and thus will not accept the glorification of Hamas and Hizbollah; Jordan's Hashemite brand of Islam is threatened by Iran's Shi'ism.

Thus, there is a shared agenda among the Arabs, though with their record of intransigence and internecine conflict, one wonders whether they will act upon that imperative.

On a different, but related note, does anyone have current information on Mookies's current status? I am expecting to hear that he and his Iranian funded Medhi cohorts in Iraq are being handled.

Chester's analysis is fascinating as are the many speculative comments. Rich I believe has an intrigueing insight but there is something beyond the fog of war that I see unfortunately preventing much good from this scenario.

Overall the world powers have often played a pivotal role in stopping the end game from reaching fruition in the ME conflicts.
I fear that this will again occur. Syria and Iran are not losers if they merely see their proxy stalled not stopped. In fact the calls by some for a cease fire is tremendously beneficial to the southern terrorists. Short of their military destruction and political weakening, Iran and Syria have nothing to fear by negotiating terms. One can sense that after the bluster, Iran will actually be pushing for that cease fire and gain the upper hand internationally as pressure will build to stop the conflict.

So in the end, I don't see the Israeli operation reaching its conclusive battle in the Bekka although it would be tremendously in the favor of Western civilization if that were the case.

As Israel's terms are not unreasonable it is looking more that a middle ground of its terms will be met with an international force merely subsuming an eventual larger conflict down the road.

That conflict will make this nothing short of a memory I fear.

I find myself conflicted b/n a show down now or later. Unfortunately, I am resigned to the eventuality of a conflict to come b/n ourselves and Iran. I have been wrong in the past and I certainly hope I am wrong on this point.

The point I wanted to throw into the mix is that the toppling of the Syrian and Iranian regimes would not necessarily result in our detriment in dealing with the "devil we didn't yet know" IF the future regime lacked an outside state sponsor. Presumably, regimes beginning their rule would be much more malleable than the present regimes.

I find myself conflicted b/n a show down now or later. Unfortunately, I am resigned to the eventuality of a conflict to come b/n ourselves and Iran. I have been wrong in the past and I certainly hope I am wrong on this point.

The point I wanted to throw into the mix is that the toppling of the Syrian and Iranian regimes would not necessarily result in our detriment in dealing with the "devil we didn't yet know" IF the future regime lacked an outside state sponsor. Presumably, regimes beginning their rule would be much more malleable than the present regimes.

Ah Ba'kakta dilemma.

I'll guess that Israel is NOT interested in returning to Lebanon. And, I'll also guess that Assad understands the consequences of putting his jets in the air. (Israel knocks them down.) And, the consequences of letting his teenage conscripts run up the Golan. Young, inexperienced kids. Not much experience in handling shoulders weapons. If they don't get killed running up the mountain; they'll surely blow themselves backwards as soon as they try and firing anything. Then, of course, like dominoes, if those that get killed fall backwards, they tumble on the next group "going up."

And, where are the officers? With the pilots. Not going anywhere.

WHile the nut in iran just screamed Tel-Aviv had ONE HOUR TO EVACUATE. Or what? Wouldn't you think that the attempt to panic a city might have something to do with "projection?" Things not going according to plan?

Since when do battle plans hold up long enough? Most of the time you're dealing with chaos. And, hoping your enemy makes the most mistakes.

Israel made one the other day. When her warship took a silkworm missile. Mistake corrected. All the radar in Lebanon has been blown to smithereens. And, lebanese army posts have also taken IDF fire. Do you wonder why?

I've heard that there's an iranian embassy in Beirut that "received" two kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Which means the UN has got to figure out how to handle this "hot potato."

And, I don't think President Bush is gonna give hezbollah any benefits. Let alone the benefit of doubt.

Land incursion ahead? Only with bulldozers. Only when its time to swing in and create a six mile wide strip that will NEVER house either a hezbollah operative. Missiles. OR the UN. Where will the UN go? They can go to Darfur. They can go any place that wants them that they like. But they're not gonna be in charge of much.

It looks like chirac has his eyes on the "reconstruction" money. So does Assad!

ANd, Bush just mentioned that he doesn't want to see Assad finagling his way back into Lebanon, again. When I heard this, I thought the President just drew a circle around Assad's neck. Alex, for $500, the jeopardy question is: Is Assad now a target? Or just in line for extra medicine to calm his nerves? Meanwhile, I like what Israel is doing.

First off, this thing got started because nasrallah saw the kidnapped soldier taken into gaza. THIS is what had him do his "schtick." Where he trapped a tank. And, after the smoke cleared he took two prisoners, himself. THEN, the chatter started.

Sort'a like starting to dance BEFORE the band starts to play.

And, the IDF, in its swift reactions has set the arabs into confusion. Nasrallah's run up into the Harmel mountains. Hiding in the tunnels, along with the drug lords. But what experience, exactly do these people have, here? They know how to move contraband. In secret. And, in passing off graft to various "authorities" to look the other way. They also LOOK tough. (Well, if a woman pads her front with false titties she could look like a Double-D. Doesn't mean it's what's really there, ya know?)

So step back a minute.

This thing is coming together fast. Israel does have military experience. And, strategy experts. You're lucky if nasrallah can read. I have no idea bout the the 2000 conscripts. By the way, I heard the number is more like 40,000. But they're teenagers. Can they read? Can they do something IF their officer is killed? (In eygpt, when Arik Sharon went against the plans that the russians had dug into the sinai; he found it was like a hot knife going through butter. And, we're talking years worth of fortified fortifications. Built to withstand assault.)

Then, we go to the Be'kakta valley. You see this there? You see anything the hezbollah has done for the past six years (since Israel left Lebanon), still standing? Radar's gone. Missiles built into living quarters: GONE. And, the village people who want to run away are finding that remnants of the hezbollah are baracading them. So they can't run anywhere. You think the locals are full of sympathy now? Just because nasrallah wears a black hat? And, carries a koran? Something tells me even the daily calls to prayers are not seeing new volunteers showing up.

Let alone WHY nasrallah picked this fight! It seems he had a morale problem. His recruits wanted him to get back imprisoned members who were in Israel. And, talking of "tactics." THIS IS WHAT STARTED THE BALL ROLLING.

If the world was flat, then iran could figure out a way to supply a battlefield "of its choosing." But it's more than likely there's real panic, now, among the arab players. Sure. They're upset at CNN. They're upset that they can't get the leverage they want from the UN.

Even Tony Blair looked foolish when he got Bush's sentence; about "how to get this shit to stop." A Ba'kakta plan, for a Ba'kakta valley.

And, no. Chemicals won't help, either. Remember, there's very little radar left in Lebanon to guide anything. And, nasrallah is holed up in a mountainous region. AND, Israel just bought 900 bunker busters. What's gonna be left of those tunnels?

I know. Like Elvis sightings; ahead, we'll get nasrallah tapes. To go with Osama rantings. As if there's been ANY battle Osama won since 9/11. It may be there. But I just don't see it.

And, the President is a patient man. He's letting all the idiots with guns, in bad neighborhoods, shoot it out. We just haven't approached the head-banging stage, yet.

The head-banging stage? You know. When policemen of old got ahold of two crooks. Took them in an alley way. And, banged away; making their heads crash into each other like cymbols. At the philharmonic.

Damona's doors are not opening. So far the arabs are taking a real licking in the early rounds. BEFORE the main event.

"If Iran launches missiles, Israel has no alternative but to think the worst and counterlaunch."

I concur with allen on this.

Remember, amidst all the logical speculation beginning with Chester's post and continued in this excellent thread, that half of the order of battle in this fight cannot be considered "rational actors" by any stretch of the imagination.

IMO the Israelis are executing a long-planned contingency operation. When the plan was drawn up, its first objective was local, in that it was a purely military maneuver (as apolitical as any fight involving Israel can be, at least) designed to hit Hizbollah as hard as possible across as many levels of leadership and logistics as a limited timeframe, measured in days or maybe weeks, would permit.

Hizbollah is light infantry, yes. The IDF, on paper, is tank heavy and known for fighting (and winning) setpiece battles.

If the objective is to destroy as many Hizbollah as possible and the biggest tactical concern for the IDF is "what about Syria on the flank?", the question I have is this: why not cordon the border between Lebanon and Syria by establishing an airhead north and east of the Bekka, then operate southward to link up with the traditional "heavy" formations, then wheel west?

Israel controls the air, has comms near US levels, and can operate at night. Light infantry without air are condolence telegrams that haven't been sent yet.

If job one is to shatter Hizbollah, I propose that the ground incursion must go at least as far as southern Beirut, with the weight of force held so close to the Syrian border that any fight shown by the Syrians happens as far away from Lebanese communities as is possible.

An attack by Syria would change the IDF objective from destroying Hizbollah to another, entirely different objective - which I have to believe has already been made clear to the Damascus regime by back channel communication.

But getting back to allen's missiles: it only has to be one, and the 12th Imam's biggest cheerleader is the one holding the key (as far as we know).

We live in interesting times. We could wake up tomorrow to fallout maps on Drudge.

Carol Herman,

Where did you hear that the Iranian embassy in Beirut had received the two captured Israeli soldiers? Very intriguing. Do you have a link?

Chester,

Can't remember where but I saw the same Iranian Embassy rumors.

It was at windsofchange.net or The Counter Terrorism Blog, maybe both?

A MUST Read from today's WSJ Opionion Journal

The Tribal Way of War
Forget Clausewitz: Nations now fight clans driven by pride, vengeance and martial religiosity.

BY ROBERT D. KAPLAN
Wednesday, July 19, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
While the U.S. spends billions of dollars on sophisticated defense systems, the dime-a-dozen kidnapper and suicide bomber have emerged as the most strategic weapons of war. While we tie ourselves in legal knots over war's acceptable parameters, international law has increasingly less bearing on those whom we fight. And while our commanders declare "force protection" as their highest priority, enemy commanders declare the need for more martyrs. It seems that the more advanced we become, the more at a disadvantage we are in the 21st-century battlefield.In "Insurgents, Terrorists, and Militias," Richard H. Shultz Jr. and Andrea J. Dew, both of Tufts's Fletcher School, have produced a wise and cogent briefing book about who our enemies are and how to anticipate their field tactics. The problem, they state early on, is that the Pentagon--the product of a rational, science-based Western culture--relies on objective quantification for its analysis. But what happens, the authors ask, if there is nothing to quantify? What happens if the enemy is merely an organic part of the landscape, revealing its features only at the moment of attack? Well, then all we can do is study these "idiosyncratic" human landscapes and use anthropology to improve our intelligence assessments.

Forget Karl von Clausewitz's dictum that war is a last resort and circumscribed by the methodical actions and requirements of a state and its army. Forget Hugo Grotius's notion that war should be circumscribed by a law of nations. As the authors remind us, paraphrasing the anthropologist Harry Turney-High: "Tribal and clan chieftains did not employ war as a cold-blooded and calculated policy instrument. . . . Rather, it was fought for a host of social-psychological purposes and desires, which included . . . honor, glory, revenge, vengeance, and vendetta." With such motives, torture and beheadings become part of the normal ritual of war.
....... The authors quote Sun Tzu, the fourth-century B.C. Chinese theorist of war: "Know your enemy." This book is a good place to start.

RTWT

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Harrison -

I was surprised to see news reports that missiles were still being transitted into Lebanon from Syria after the IDFAF was already working in earnest.

Syria is pledged to support Hezbollah (going with this decade's spelling, I guess). Iran is pledged to support Syria, and owns Hezbollah.

Israel is going to destroy Hezbollah. The issue of face comes into play here real, real quick.

The international community has NOT come down monolithically on the Israelis, and the days go by with ever increasing operational tempo, more IDF equipment and formations operating where they want and when they want.

I'm waiting for the punditry to start asking "so, what about all this 'support' Hezbollah is supposed to be getting? Seems like Iran and Syria talk a good game, but I'm just sayin'...."

Not rational actors. At least not in Iran. Syria - I almost feel sorry for Assad. About the same way I'd feel if a cannibal king ended up with an apple in his mouth at the center of the feast.

This morning as I was working I caught some radio soundbites of American evacuees in Cyprus. Sometimes it's embarassing to see what's become of our nation. There was a high percentage of whiners; it was CBS, though, so it wasn't so surprising as all that.

“The lights are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime” famously intoned British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey in the gathering dusk of August 4 1914. Today, the lights of a post Soviet world are flickering in a breeze of overwhelming European Islamic immigration and radical Islam. Anti-Semitism, thirty-years ago a relic of Nazi ideology, has been revived as basis for Radical Islamic Jihad. And the US, saddled with a difficult occupation, has allowed" the dogs of war" to slip from its grasp.

Another post WWII, late 20th and early 21st century proxy war has begun. This time the Iranian puppet Hizbollah is stirring the pot in Lebanon against Israel and not so indirectly at the US. Three questions need to asked as this proxy war either flares up, withers away or explodes.

Is Iran (the mullahocracy) honestly ready to take on the US military? (Got nucs?)
No.
Is Israel over its Lebanese "Vietnam syndrome", and will it put two armored divisions inside Lebanon to wipe out Hizbollah?
Yes.
Can Syria resist attacking the Israeli right flank in ground war in Lebanon?
See question #1.

All the players are attuned to each other movements (shades of 1914!) and will nominally abide by rational thought processes . The joker in this deck is an Iranian/ Hizbollah terrorist attack on US soil. It would not take much for the US to turn significant portions of Iranian infrastructure into molten glass. Unfortunately the mullahs have the same disregard for US national outrage as did the Japanese before Pearl Harbor.