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July 16, 2006

NEO Questions

Noncombatant Evacuation Operation in Lebanon: The US will take the lead in evacuating Americans and other allied nation's citizens from Lebanon. In fact, there is already an assessment team on the ground figuring out the logistics of how to do a mass evacuation, especially since the Israelis have taken the Beirut airport out of action. Here's a couple of key issues that will be important:

a) throughput of personnel: If the evacuation is to be handled by helicopters as Spook 86 argues, and those are from the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group, then there are going to be some serious logistical problems to be solved if the NEO is not to drag on for weeks. How many helicopters does the ESG have? An educated guess would be less than 30, mainly CH-46s and CH-53s, with a handful of Navy CH-60s. Figure an average of 20ish people per trip and you start to see the problem. There are an estimated 25,000 Americans in Lebanon, not to mention foreign nationals. Now the second part of the problem is the distance that must be flown. Cyprus has been mentioned as one drop-off point, where follow-on fixed wing transport can be arranged to Europe or back to the States. Nicosia, Cyprus is 150 miles from Beirut, according to Google Earth. This makes for one long flight for just 20 people per bird. Finally, I think they'll have to go to Cyprus. It's the closest relatively safe place with airfields.

I'm no NEO expert. There are probably a variety of techniques to shorten the roundtrip distance needed per flight in order to increase the flow of personnel. But here's two predictions: the US is going to surge more helicopters to the region somehow. And, don't be surprised if the British and especially French navies show up to assist in the evacuation. The NEO will be big.

b) Rules of engagement: The NEO will require a relatively light footprint on the ground; it probably will not be conducted under fire, so there can probably be some bare minimum in the way of processing stations. These areas, however many there are, will need security. I'd expect at least a company of Marine infantry to go ashore to provide security at pickup sites. A larger force could be required, depending on how many pickup sites there are and how dispersed they are.

This leads one to wonder what sorts of rules of engagement they'll be given. If sniped at, what's the response? If the transport helos receive ground fire, will Cobras be on call to respond?

Finally, aside from tactical considerations of ROE and responses, what does it mean strategically if an American helicopter is shot down in Lebanon? That is the biggest risk of the entire operation. Finally, if US ships are close to shore, what's to prevent Hezbollah from using one of its drones to attack the US Navy?

Posted by Chester at July 16, 2006 11:12 PM

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Comments

If I was doing it, I would hire a few of the cruise ships that do the Greek Islands trip. Then you helio the refuges out to the LPH or LPD or what ever they call them now days and transfer them by boat to the cruise ships. The cruise ships take them to someplace with an airport and it's a done deal.
IIRC, it's about an hour and ahalf by helio to Cyprus, plus it's at the edge of the range of the aircraft with a heavy load, so you would have to refuel a lot. It would be a real bruiser for the pilots, you would need to work shifts. So in an 8 hour period you wouldn't get but 3 flights done, or 75 people ( lets say 100 to make the math easy). So the 30 some helios would take 9,000 people per working day. If everything went pefect (which it won't) you could get them all out in a 24 hour day.
If you take them out to a LPH or one of the baby carriers the Limeys and Frogs like, you could move 150 an hour per heilo, and make a dozen or so trips in 3 hours before pulling the bird for a fillup and clean the windows please.
So with 30 birds working, you could get the refugees off the beach in a morning, Plus this way you could use the Ships as collection points to do the paperwork out of harms way, so to speak.
That 25,000 will turn into 75,000 once the word gets out. It would create to much confusion and give ol Murphy a straight shot to try and process the refugees on the beach before taking them on board the choppers. Do that on the ship where BIG, Healthy Marines armed to the teeth are all over the place. It will cut Waaaay down on the number of terrorists, convicts, gifters and general riff raff that will try to bail out on Uncle Sam's dime.
IIRC those LPH's hold about 5,000 normally, although I might be a bit high with that. Anyway for just a few hours, they should be able to squeeze in 8,000 or so. Process them ( vitals in a computer, quickie med check, a moldy cheese sandwich (box lunch) or a MRE ( take the 'box lunch', at least the box is tasty if you put enough Ketchup on it) and a quick potty run. Slam them into a boat and get them over to the cruise ship, where the crew can do what they are trained to do and take care of them.
I would put the full Regimental Combat team in. No point in sticking a squad out where Hizbolla can snatch them. Put in a company and it will get split up into platoons and then squads. That is why 3 guys were left alone on a street corner in Iraq to get snatched, killed and tortured. Their Platoon commander needs to do 20 hard time.
Remember how this thing started? Hizbbola would love to put a few Marines in the bag. Remember about half the Lebanese Army moonlights for Hizbbola, so they won't have any problem rounding up 50 guys or so to go after half a squad. No manuver unit smaller then a platoon will stop that hostage thing before it starts.

Posted by: Stehpinkeln at July 17, 2006 1:44 AM

Stehpinkeln,

Yes -- I agree, cruise ships are not a bad idea. The point is they're going to have to get more than what they have in an ESG if they want to do short ferry hops . . .

And it might not be a bad idea to put the whole Battalion Landing Team ashore (that's all the ESG has, not an RCT), but it just depends on the ground situation. I bet they pick about three pickup sites and put a company on each, with Cobras nearby.

As far as processing goes, I bet they'll still do that ashore and not at sea, though definitely everything else -- medical checkup, etc, -- will not take place ashore. But it might take place at the final destination, not on ship.

Posted by: Chester at July 17, 2006 8:37 AM

Might a large Ro-Ro, Roll On-Roll Off, ship have a "role" in the evac? I don't know what port facilities they would need, but one or two might be able to get folks off the beach in one move.

Posted by: Everett.Parker at July 17, 2006 9:39 AM

Seems they may be considering a variant of the cruise ship theme.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203940,00.html

Posted by: Glenn at July 17, 2006 12:18 PM

I wonder what type of air cover will be assigned to the NATO NEO ships.

Posted by: rich at July 17, 2006 1:46 PM

A Brother was part of the Marine Corps deployment in Lebanon in the early 80's (82 to 84, IIRC)
They were originally sent in to evacuate refugees, but ended up staying as targets.
Cruise Ships will be involved at some point, just because of the massive number of refuges. While the military has advantages, the Cruise lines do have a certain amount of experience at dealing with large numbers of cluless people, all of whom figure THEIR problems have priority over anything else.
My military experience is over 3 decades past, but I somehow doubt the 'new improved' US Military has developed any strong urges to drop everything and make some 45 year old housewife and her fat, bald husband feel all warm and fuzzy. I seem to remember the standard response to a personal problem being "drop by the chaplain's and fill out a TS form." So having humans there who are used to holding the hands of scared, clueless people and replacing panic with warm and fuzzy would be more then worth the cost. Plus the cruise ships will have staterooms with running water and real beds. That beats the 'ell of a small section of hanger deck and left over Korean War emergency rations.
I wonder if the IDF is holding back because of the Western refuges. Ever one of those mothers sons has a representative who is trying to get re-elected this November. Those same Representatives decide how many of the primo toys the IDF gets.
I seem to recall that the IAF was scheduled to get their first F-22's in March of this year. Has there been a holdup in that schedule? I know the 1st got theirs on time and are on a round the world sales tour now, or at least the last I hear. There isn't much on the net about that anymore, which seems strange for a publicity tour.
Any way, if Hizbolla gets the idea that the refugees are valuable, then they will want their share. So the prime consideration is getting those refuges beyond the reach of Hizbolla FAST. Speed is even more critical then normal in this case. So taking the time to helio them to Cyprus is a huge mistake. It's a lot easier on the staff to fly them to Cyprus, but they are being lazy and will pay for that.

"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. All influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."
- Karl von Clausewitz

Posted by: Stehpinkeln at July 17, 2006 2:01 PM

"Oh Hell!"
BOHICA

Posted by: Barry 0351 at July 17, 2006 2:52 PM

One Marine explained the full name of the TS form as the "Think Success Form." Stating that chaplains know that thinking success can solve many problems!

Posted by: rich at July 17, 2006 3:26 PM

If Iran really wants war all they have to do is to order Hezbollah to attack the evacuees and the ships. It would be a bloodbath of enormous magnitude similar to Dunkirk. In that evacuation tens of thousands of Brits and Europeans had their backs to the sea waiting on the beaches for help. The remaining British soldiers between them and the advancing German army as it conquered Belgium and France.

The Nazis were determined to wipe them out.

British ships had trouble getting close to the shore because of big German artillery. Finally, on a cold morning with peasoup fog over the sea thousands of small private boats made their way, down the Thames and from coastal villages, across the Channel to Dunkirk just in time to save most of the evacuees. Under heavy fire many British soldiers died on the beaches holding the German army back.

Posted by: JimboNC at July 17, 2006 6:49 PM

If the UN sends in a peace keeping force it should be armed to the teeth and occupy all of Lebanon right up to the Syrian borded. Pushing Hezbollah out and destroying their weapons. That force should go in as the evacuees come out. Nothing less will succeed.

Posted by: JimboNC at July 17, 2006 6:59 PM

If the UN sends in a peace keeping force it should be armed to the teeth

...and riding on unicorns.

Posted by: Eric J at July 17, 2006 7:26 PM

Excuse me folks, but if the UN "sent in a peace keeping force that was armed to the teeth," it would simply support the terrorists. Haven't any of you noticed whose side the UN is on? Jeez!

Posted by: NoName at July 17, 2006 9:01 PM

A cruise liner has been organized to pick up evacuees from Beirut Port and take them to Cyprus. Apparently it is described by the US Embassy in Beirut as "Relocation Assistance" rather than evacuation. There is a charge of $3,000 for relocation assistance. No other country is charging for "relocation assistance"

Posted by: MikeM at July 18, 2006 4:24 AM