Good article, but it assumes the critical final point (for reasons of space, no doubt): Can Israel destroy Hezbollah?

Good point, Tigerhawk. What exactly do they have in mind? They're keeping their cards close and sending mixed signals, probably intentionally.

Michael Savage is intimating there's a wild card left to be played. I figure he's talking about Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, possibly Sunni dominated Pak Army along with Egyptian morale support.

Remember, along with President Bush, they have been conspicuously quiet in reaction to the daily histrionics coming out of Iran and Lebanon. Yeah the thought has occurred to me that by elevating the Shia in Iraq, the Sunnis who are our friends and beneficiaries of our involvement in their military and economy would cling more closely. What a neat bit of maneuvering if true. Why they might even decide it's in their best interest to give all those fancy jets a run around the block. It's high stakes but if they sit there and do nothing, they'll soon find themselves and their countries in a very compromising position.

FYI, to this day no commercial documents going into Saudi Arabia are permitted to contain the phrase "Persian Gulf".

Michael Savage is intimating there's a wild card left to be played. I figure he's talking about Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, possibly Sunni dominated Pak Army along with Egyptian morale support.

Remember, along with President Bush, they have been conspicuously quiet in reaction to the daily histrionics coming out of Iran and Lebanon. Yeah the thought has occurred to me that by elevating the Shia in Iraq, the Sunnis who are our friends and beneficiaries of our involvement in their military and economy would cling more closely. What a neat bit of maneuvering if true. Why they might even decide it's in their best interest to give all those fancy jets a run around the block. It's high stakes but if they sit there and do nothing, they'll soon find themselves and their countries in a very compromising position.

FYI, to this day no commercial documents going into Saudi Arabia are permitted to contain the phrase "Persian Gulf".

It's going to be a beautiful thing to watch. I think I'll stay in the stock market :).

It's NOT impossible that hezebollah defeats the IDF. As more data comes in, it's starting to look like a trap. 60,000 Revolutionary guards, 10,000 Hezebollah terrorists and 40,000 Lebanon Soldiers using Tunnels and the Urban environment to surround and destroy a large part of the IDF. Sort of a modern day Manzikert. Note that Lebanon is playing the part of Andronicus While tunnels are more of a handicap then help, they do offer a way to avoid the overwhelming power of the IAF.
It looks like the IDF isn't going to fall into the trap which is a good thing. ONE major battlefield defeat would mean the end of Israel. A lot of the IDF's advantage is the moral superority of never having been defeated. Take that away and the IDF is good, but not GREAT.
I was hoping that Israel would do something like have it's foriegn office tell other diplos that they need to get out of Damascus and Tehran because Israel has nukes targeted there. That would really get some balls rolling. Koffi would crap in his silk undies.
Omar thinks that the Iranians are waiting for the 12th Imam to pop up out of his well on the 22nd of August. You Know, sort of like Groundhog Day. If he sees his shadow, we have 6 more weeks of airstrikes.

I think that Grumbler may have a point. At what point will the U.S. and/or other countries step in, especially with opposition from some European countries?

Katie, I think that depends on how hard Condi sells the firmness of the US position. Hezebollah MUST be disarmed for there to be any progress toward creating a DMZ along the Israel/Lebanon border. If the Euroes think we can be moved off that position, then there will be no diplomatic attempt.
A real DMZ is the short term solution to that part of the Israel-Arab problem.
A smart man ( I can't find the quote, but I think it was Ike or Dulles or one of the British Foriegn ministers) once said that to coerce another nation, you must present it with choices worse then the one you want it to take.
Or as the Marines tell their recruits, 'We cannot make you do anything. However we can make you regret not doing something'.
So for Condi to be effective, she must present the europeans with worst choices then aiding the US and Israel in putting a muzzle and shorter leash on Hezebolla. Since that requires co-operation by Syria and Iran, it's a very complex problem.

There is no problem that cannot be solved by the use of high explosives.
- Bumper Sticker

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step, and a lot of bitching."
-Unknown

I'm extremely unknowledgable about such things...but if Iran supports Syria and Syria supports Hezbollah, and Iran is under the microscope in terms of its nuclear program, then wouldn't it stand to reason that this could have been orchestrated by the Iranians to divert attention away from the nuclear issue?

Also, if Hezbollah is supported by Syria and/or Iran, what is stopping Hezbollah drawing Israel into Lebanon and then retreating into Syria, waiting until Israel withdraws and then going back with the advantage of public support from the Lebanese who have just been bombed by the Israelis? It seems to me like this is a public relations disaster for the Israelis.

Well, yes, but... When you are fighting for your life, public relations are not important. I have never seen a corpse that seemed concerned about opinions of any kind. If your life is being threatened, you deal with it and let your lawyer deal with the laws you broke. Being within the law but dead doesn't make much sense. In the case of nation states, where there is NO LAW except the law of the jungle, you destroy your enemy before they destroy you and make ammends later.
I am having great fun with liberals pointing out that either Lebanon is a democracy or it's not. If it is then Hezebolla is part of the government, by election. So the Lebanese, just like the Arabs living in the Gaza strip, are getting what they voted for. When you vote for war, expect war and live with it.
In '02 and '04 Americans had a clear choice between war and surrender. Both times they voted for war. I expect them to do so again in '06 and '08. It wouldn't suprise me to see the demonrats figure it out by '08 and try to produce a canidate more hawkish then the Repunglicans do. Either that or the Democrats end up like the Wigs.

Grumbler... I like "Wigs", better than Whigs Ha! The next party to develop in the U.S. when the Demons implode will also NOT use the Demon name.

I'm suprised, most don't get it. Of couse, a better nome de` web for me might be 'typo de` second', so I guess it's my fault when my almost clever mis-spellings go un-noticed.
I expect that a core group of 'scoop Jackson' Democrats will emerge after the slaughter of '06. This latest terror offensive by Iran and it's minions is good for about a 10% bump in the November elections. That's big in an age where elections are won or lost by .00000004% of the vote. The Mad Mullahs of Tehran have backed their US supporters out on a limb and are now sawing it off.
By October it will be obvious to all but the most extreme left that the choices America has is surrender or fight. That leaves the left in the position of conviencing millions of soccer moms that they need to forget about the Womans Lib thingie and get used to wearing Burlap sacks and not leaving the home without a male relative as a chaperon. Good luck with that.
For the '08 cycle, THE isssue will who can be the most warlike. That will fracture the Donks, with the Greens and the hard core anti-war trying to form their own party. Campaign contributions will be a problem. If Soros provides all the money, it becomes the Soros Party and the Feds get to go over his bank accounts with a fine tooth comb, which will result in Ol' George entertaining the cons at a federal prision. Plus the Soros party couldn't get elected dogcatcher in Greenwich Village.
What scares me the most is Hill-de-beast promising to kill however many Muslims she has to kill to end this war and getting elected that way. I imagine a dream about Hillery Clinton as US President would have Amadamnutjobadeen waking up in a cold sweat screaming in terror.

Chester, there is no doubt that the Iraqi action has had consequences on this war. For the first time the Arab states of Egypt, Jordan, Saudia Arabia and others have been critical of Hezbullah. And this has given Israel time to do some real damage before they are pressured to stop. I doubt that the leaders of Hezbullah saw that coming.

Perhaps this turn around in Arab attitude can be used to persuade Assad to change his stripes. Afterall, he is isolated with only Iran as an ally. And he knows that Israel can take him out before Iran can even warm up their jet engines.

I have heard nothing from Lybia as of yet. If we can get Kahdafi to explain the benefits of a sleeping peacefully at night with the US as an ally instead of an enemy, Assad will see the light. And bringing Syria into the moderate fold will greatly isolate Iran and cut of Hezbullah from its weapons.

Let Syria know the door is open. Then if they fail to walk through it, have Israel kick it shut by feigning a Lebanon invasion and making a right turn to Damascuss.