I'll stick with what I've been saying for two days...there's going to be a ground component to this. The Israelis are dropping the bridges so that nobody gets away.

They're coming...the US embassy staff is leaving Beirut. In the first instance...the Israelis will re-run Operation Litani and see what they bag. After that depends on the bag and on foreign reaction...

If they go to the Bekaa like Stratfor seems to think...that would be when to watch the Syrians. The Iranians and everybody else will have to decide whether to let the Israelis overrun the Hezbollah depots and whatever IRGC elements are in the Bekaa. I spect if the Syrians twitch...they won't have an airforce and some state guest houses and official residences and bunkers in Damascus will be craters.

Then there's the US reaction. Suspect we'd be onboard for flattening Hezbolllah, but would not want the Syrians to be involved at all...to try to tamp down problems in Iraq.

I'd like to know more on the reserve call up in Israel. Stratfor yesterday seemed to think it was big...they said at least one reserve division fer sure, maybe more. Some of that may be the strain of operations on three fronts...but I can't think that Gaza is stretching them that bad. I agree with Stratfor that they have to move. They've lost too much face getting their people grabbed in Gaza and in the north. And they have to get Haifa out of the rocket footprint.

But that reserve call up puts the israelis in a vice...they can't do that forever without sending their economy up the spout more than it is already. They have to move soon.

I agree there will be a ground component to this campaign, but I think it may be two or three weeks away. The fact that Israel seems to have U.S. support within agreed limits means it doesn't have to rush things and can conduct a campaign modelled along the lines of Desert Storm (first we cut them off, then we kill them). I think the goal of the operation is to destroy Hezbollah root and branch and to allow the government of Lebanon to assert control over its country. That would make a huge change in the Middle East.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if contingency plans for such an operation were vetted with Washington in the expectation that the opportunity would arise. It would make good sense to have done this in the context of the Gaza withdrawal. The United States has a long list of reasons for getting rid of Hezbollah and Syria. I can't see much reason why it should restrain Israel.

There has been some speculation that Hezbollah and Syria might be plotting a chemical strike against Israel. Perhaps. But it's worth recalling that no country in the world is better prepared to ride one out. All citizens have access to gas masks and atrapine and most know how to prepare a sealed room. I was in Tel Aviv during Desert Storm. Based on what I saw, I don't doubt that a chemical strike on Israel would cost lives, but that the country would survive. I don't think the same could be said of those who carried it out. From time to time it's been reported that Israel has a chemical warfare capability as well as a nuclear one. The Israelis certainly have the technological skill to provide a chemical warhead for a Jerico 2 (range 1,000 miles if memory serves) or a submarine launched cruise missile.

I agree there will be a ground component to this campaign, but I think it may be two or three weeks away. The fact that Israel seems to have U.S. support within agreed limits means it doesn't have to rush things and can conduct a campaign modelled along the lines of Desert Storm (first we cut them off, then we kill them). I think the goal of the operation is to destroy Hezbollah root and branch and to allow the government of Lebanon to assert control over its country. That would make a huge change in the Middle East.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if contingency plans for such an operation were vetted with Washington in the expectation that the opportunity would arise. It would make good sense to have done this in the context of the Gaza withdrawal. The United States has a long list of reasons for getting rid of Hezbollah and Syria. I can't see much reason why it should restrain Israel.

There has been some speculation that Hezbollah and Syria might be plotting a chemical strike against Israel. Perhaps. But it's worth recalling that no country in the world is better prepared to ride one out. All citizens have access to gas masks and atrapine and most know how to prepare a sealed room. I was in Tel Aviv during Desert Storm. Based on what I saw, I don't doubt that a chemical strike on Israel would cost lives, but that the country would survive. I don't think the same could be said of those who carried it out. From time to time it's been reported that Israel has a chemical warfare capability as well as a nuclear one. The Israelis certainly have the technological skill to provide a chemical warhead for a Jerico 2 (range 1,000 miles if memory serves) or a submarine launched cruise missile.

Bandit 3. 6. For an Army perspective.

Hope this helps... it's a bit dated though. http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/israel/IsraelMissile2005.html

Semper Fi!

Regarding chemical weapons and Hezbollah. I do seem to recall reading, most probably at DEBKA, speculation that WMD from Iraq was spirited out shortly before Operation Iraqi Freedom and was delivered through Syria to the Bekaa Valley. The Syrians, of course, wouldn't want a 'smoking gun' in their possession - so what better keeper of Iraqi WMD than Hezbollah?

Mike, as for requests I suggest you add bunker busters/deep penetrators. I seem to remember reading about those being ordered from us recently. Not so sure about MOAB's or something similar but that is very hazy in my memory, too.

IIRC, the Jerico I had a 600NM range, and the Jerico II almost doubled that. Both could deliver a 100KT or larger nuclear warhead. The last time I knew anything about Israel's warfighting capability, they were working on a solid-motor, long-range missile that would be able to deliver a large fission warhead 3000NM. That was in the mid-1980's so that may be in limited operational capacity, if they kept developing it. A missile with a 3000NM range would definitely put all of the Middle East in range, and even reach Pakistan. I haven't heard anything about Israel developing a thermonuclear (fusion) warhead, but it's well within their intellectual and manufacturing capability.

It definitely looks like Israel has intention of a ground assault. They have dropped the bridges in the south to prevent both reinforcement and retreat. I find it curious that Israel has attacked the main rod to Damascus but left the bridge across the river intact. Does any think Israel is planning to use it?

If Iran comes to the aid of their proxies it will probably be at the straits of hormuz in an effort to get diplomatic pressure on Israel.

Does anyone remember the rummors about Iraqs missing WMD's being burried in the Bekaa valley, and if true how would there prensence affect the stratgeic and tactical situation on the ground?

Dan,

DEBKA did report that Iraqi WMDs were buried in the Bekaa, and I believe I've seen the report elsewhere as well. DEBKA was probably the primary souce however.

The putative weapons presence could affect the situation profoundly if one of three things happened:
1)Hezbollah or syria tried to dig them up.
2)Israel bombed the pit.
3)Israel overran the site and dug them up.

As I said on my own blog today. I think the disabling of that Israeli naval vessel by the Hezbollah or IRGC drone today, off Lebanon...means Israel will have to proceed with a ground offensive.

The Israelis have so much egg on their face now. The bad guys took hostages, they shelled Haifa with the Fajrs, and now they've given the Israeli Navy a black eye. Whatever the real facts on the ground, as far as points are going, the Hezbollah and bad guy team is doing pretty good.

The Israelis have to HIT THESE PEOPLE HARD...and real quick, or they're going to be shoehorned into a ceasefire with only equivocal military success...which will be a disaster, and will make Hezbollah bigger than ever.

The best card the IDF has is its formidable ground component. I don't see that they have any choice...now, after committing themselves by bombing the kaka out of southern Lebanon -- than to commit it.

http://dhchaos.blogspot.com/2006/07/that-tears-it.html

I'm going to answer a quetion you didn't ask.

It takes Israel about 3 days to mobilize for defence and another 3 for offence. We are now going into the third day of the mobilization. Expect serious ground operations no sooner than the 18th. In addition the moon will be 1/2 full and waning with the new moon on the 25th so a few extra days delay from the 18th might give an advantage if the opening attack is at night. The Israelis have lots of night vision. The Syrians and Lebanese - not so much.

HalleCullom

I dont agree. The kidnapping has proved disastrous for HIz. They expected a trade form a wek Israeli government. What they received was a direct attack on the Bekaa and Beirut. Nasrallah must be feeling very isolated now, as he realises Iran and Syria cannot do much to help him without them suffering disaster. He is defiant but ultimately, like Hitler, hiding in some bunker with a cellphone. Israel meanwhile is removing Hiz from Lebanon. Not a good outcome for him.

It might be that Syria and Iran act in the next few days/ weeks. The temptation will be to attack Israel with WMD, in the knowledge that to do so will bring nuclear destruction to their countries. They may be crazy enough to think about it but ultimately, I think they would rather sacrifice a proxy than go down that route.

Dangerous times but it was always going to come to this, so lets get on with it and seek total victory.

And for the moon struck:

USNO virtual moon. Any date from 1800 to 2199.

"If Iraq's Shiites rise up during the crisis in Lebanon, we will know who is behind them."

This comment struck me, because I'd run across this article earlier today, and hadn't seen it mentioned anywhere else. (From the Sweetness-Light blog)

http://tinyurl.com/pzxce

Could you please start a list of Hezbollah and Hamas war crimes reported so far, WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY THE MSN AS WAR CRIMES!

For example, Dan Gillerman stated at the UN Security Council that in Lebanon Hezbollah was hiding missile launchers in civilian houses with the families still residing in the homes.

http://www.israel-un.org/sec_council/60thUNGA/gillerman14july2006.htm

This is a war crime.

Hamas held operational military meetings in civilian houses, with civilians remaining in place as protection.

This is a war crime.

Hezbollah and Hamas are firing missiles aimed at civilian populations in Israel.

This is a war crime.

The kidnapings which started the war were war crimes.

Why isn't the MSM reporting these as war crimes?

Where are the Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch reports stating that these are war crimes?

How do you "proportionally" respond to war crimes?

How can the public form an honest opinion about what is happening if the war crimes of the aggressors are not identified and reported by the media?

I think the desired Israeli outcome is that they invade and smack around Hezbollah, then withdraw and turn over their positions to the Lebanese army. This avoids an occupation, and is in effect a disarmament of the Hezbollah militia that the rest of Lebanon wants.

Hezbollah is a high prestige item for Syria and Iran, though. They may be willing to run a lot of risks to maintain them in the field.

At some point we need to pull a diplomatic coup and bring Syria over to the West. The West has a GDP of 30+ Trillion dollars versus Iran's .5. In the 70s we pulled Egypt into the fold and drove the Soviets out, and initiating peace between them and the Israelis. The Syrian regime has to know that being hooked up to Iran is a dead end long term. Overthrowing the Assad regime is easy from a military point of view but it would be a 10 year occupation/rebuilding effort afterwards and we are committed to Iraq and Afghanistan for the time being. A neutralized Syria would be inexpensive - a few billion a year, about what we give Egypt - but would accomplish several things - one completely isolate Iran, eliminate border passage of jihadists into Iraq, isolate Hizbollah to wither and die on the vine, and bring a degree of stability to that part of the world that would cut oil prices considerably (every $1 increase in oil is 4 billion dollars). Making deals with thugs like this is not my cup of tea but it's far cheaper. Once they are dependent on our aid we can bring pressure on areas like human rights. This diplomatic breakthrough would also be easily sold to countries like France, Germany and others. Remember, the enemy is Iran. Syria is just a pawn.

Seems everyone agrees that Israel will take out the Hez and allow the new democratic gov of Lebanon take control as they withdraw.

The question is will Syria and Iran sit back while this happens? Probably not. Iran will do all it can to aid Hezbullah, from supplying weapons to stirring up trouble elsewhere.

Syria is in quite a pickle. If they sit back and do nothing, they will anger the Iranians who support Bashir and keep him in power. Losing Iranian support puts Bashir at great risk. However, if he steps into this fight, Israel will be in his capitol city within weeks. He loses either way. Perhaps he will see thsi truth and reach out to the US and/or Europe for an Egyptian-style package as Don. At least worth a shot.

As for Iran, they will pressure Syria to get engaged. They will stir up the Shia militias in Iraq. They may try to interupt oil shipments of various ME countries. They may use their terrorist proxies to strike within Europe and/or the US.

If Iran gets involved in oil interuptions or militarily, the world faces some very difficult times ahead. Crude will skyrocket and the world's economy could collapse. Knowing this, the US and its allies must have contingency plans for a very quick and decisive war plan against Iran. Anything prolonged against Iran would be a dissaster. Look for a deployment of aircraft carriers to the ME very soon.

Most likely, we will see Israel remove Hazbullah and then withdraw, Syria and Israel will have some squirmishes but avoid major conflict, Iran will huff and puff but stay out.

Iran got what it wanted already. The UN has ignored the missed deadline to its offer to Iran, the G8 Summit has been derailed from dealing with Iran, and their nuke program goes on uninterrupted and out of the glare of the world. They will stall further so that they can develope their nukes and then push the issue.

What is most surprizing is the world reaction so far. The Lebanese people are very angry with Hezbullah instead of rallying around them as in the past. Has to be a huge shock to Nezrallah. Most ME blogs are reporting that the people of the ME blame the Hez instead of Israel, another major blow to the terrorists. And Europe seems to backing Israel so far, again a major loss for the Hez, the Syrians, and especially Iran. All very good signs.

A couple of things.

1. Expect a HUGE IDF armored thrust up the Eastern Spine of Lebanon to the Bekaa. That's the Hez heartland. The IDF Paras and Special Forces will be dropped in front early on and the Armor will go in to meet them. Paras will establish blocking positions to meet retreating Hez trying to get to Syria. Hammer and Anvil. Mech infantry will follow. IDF has mobilized the spearhead troops, is now mobilizing follow on mech soldiers who will actually root out the Hez and missileers.

2. Top targets for SF and Mossad are the Revolutionary Guards Corps troops so they can be brought back to Israel for a thorough going over.

3. Rice has concluded that Ahmadhi Dinner Jacket was never serious about her proposal of May 30th. That accounts for her tone of today. She understands that the Hez offensive was Iran's answer to her proposal. IDF will be given a relatively free hand.

4. Look closely at American deployments in Iraq. Expect our troops to be deployed into hedgehog and armored up formations. We expect the Iranians to attack us.

5. Expect active planning to begin on a highly compartmentalized level between the IDF General Staff and our own JCS for the Iran Air Campaign. IAF's Unit 69 and 509th Bomb Wing (formerly 509th Composite Group) will be chief actors in that air campaign. Duration will have to be several weeks, at least.

6. Ahmadhi Dinner-Jacket has cast the die. Expect ferocious Hez missile attacks in coming days. Tel Aviv will be struck. Cry havoc, etc....